AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Monthly Weather Summaries

Monthly Weather Summary, February 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

February marks the end of the dry transition period of the dry season for Belize. Climatologically, this month typically experiences the second highest number of cold fronts with a total of 8. Rainfall during the month is normally attributed to the passage of frontal systems that progresses southward from the continental United States, and upper and surface troughs. An average of eight cold fronts, one stationary front, one surface trough and two upper level troughs would cross Belize for the month but in February 2021, only two cold fronts with three surface troughs, three surface lows and one stationary front crossed the country. Several other frontal systems passed north of the area.

The first week in the month was relatively dry due to limited low and upper level moisture, supported by a high pressure ridge over the North Atlantic, extending into the central Caribbean basin. A cold front approached the country on February 1, crossing on February 2 with a deep upper level trough digging to the surface. This system did not produce significant convection through its passage due to limited upper level support and available moisture with only isolated showers and light rain observed over central and southern areas. Cool and variably cloudy conditions prevailed on February 3 with minimum temperatures falling significantly across the country, especially over northern and inland areas., however, no records were broken. A deep upper level trough was associated with this frontal system and persisted over the western Caribbean through to February 3, supporting a west to north-westerly wind component over Belize with an upper level ridge observed over the area on February 6. On February 7, an upper level jet over Belize supported a west to south-westerly flow. In the low levels, ridging prevailed February 3 to 6 with a surface low pressure system analyzed over the area on February 7. Surface winds were north to north-westerly February 1-3 becoming east to northeast on February 5, before a light to moderate south-easterly flow set in on February 6 and 7. The ending of the week saw little to no rainfall observed over the area, except for an isolated thunderstorm developing over the Maya mountains on February 7.

Dry conditions continued into week two due to continued dominance of the high pressure ridge over the Caribbean basin. Rainfall during this period was mostly isolated and conditions favoured fair and warm weather over the country. The upper levels were also very dry with a neutral pattern observed, supported mainly by a broad upper level ridge February 8 to 10, resulting in a west to south-westerly component. A slight trough pattern developed over the western Caribbean sea on February 10 supporting a north to north-westerly flow at the upper levels, then a ridging pattern continued through to the end of week two. The main surface feature during the period was a stationary front north of the area, supporting a north-easterly surface flow on February 8, then a predominantly east to southerly flow prevailed February 9 through 14 supported by ridging over the area, with the exception of February 13 where another stationary front supported a north-westerly surface flow. To the east of Belize, a surface trough was analysed and persisted over the north-west Caribbean, however, only isolated showers or thunderstorms were observed.

Moisture continued minimal across the country in week three with only isolated pockets observed over the mid to upper levels and a neutral to weakly divergent pattern was observed throughout the period. A polar trough was observed over the area February 15-17 yielding a west to south-westerly upper level wind component, followed by a more south-westerly flow February 18 to 21 as a result of an anticyclone. In the low levels, conditions also continued relatively dry with only isolated showers, if any. A slight increase in moisture occurred on February 18 leading to the development of a few afternoon thunderstorms over the mountain range that dissipated by night-fall. The approach of a cold front on February 19 supported the development of isolated showers over northern, central and inland areas. The front crossed the country on the evening of February 20 with skies becoming cloudy to overcast and periods of light rain and brief showers affected most areas. This front left a deep trough over the area, extending down to the surface and later became stationary over the north-west Caribbean. Cool conditions prevailed across the country up to February 21.

This front stalled and became stationary with moisture persisting into week four, concentrated mostly in the low levels until February 24. Skies were mostly clear at night-time with early morning fog reported on February 22 and 23. Thereafter, a surface trough over the area supported an east to north-easterly flow and isolated showers. Drier conditions began settling in towards the end of the month as the Bermuda high built and extended into the Caribbean and over Belize. Moderate to gusty east to south-east surface airflow prevailed through to the end of the month as a result of a tight pressure gradient over the area. The dry conditions and neutral to convergent pattern at the upper levels further suppressed any significant convection with fair and windy conditions ending off the overall, dry month.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was below normal over most areas of the country, except for some parts of the Corozal and Belize districts due to the passage of the two cold strong cold fronts that crossed the country and the approach of several other frontal systems that passed north of the area, where above normal rainfall was observed. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show below near normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/nighttime temperatures were also near normal for all the stations except for Central farm in the west and Punta Gorda station in the south.

Monthly Rainfall Summary



Monthly Maximum Temperatures



Monthly Minimum Temperatures



Rainfall Observed: February 2021 (mm)



Rainfall Observed: February 2021 (% Above/Below Average)

Monthly Weather Summary, March 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

The warm dry period of the dry season typically begins in March for Belize. Climatologically, this month marks the onset of windy south-easterlies and more stable conditions due to the influence of high pressure systems. Rainfall during the month is normally attributed to the passage of frontal systems that progresses southward from the continental United States, surface troughs and an increase in upper level troughs. An average of six cold fronts, one stationary front, one warm front, three surface troughs and 9 upper level troughs would cross Belize for the month but in March 2021, only four frontal systems passing north of the area and one surface trough over the Yucatan to the Northwest of Belize.

The Bermuda high pressure system dominated our weather during the first week of March. A light east to south-easterly airflow prevailed near the surface due to ridging over the area. This also led to dry conditions over the country that saw fair weather prevailing with little to no rainfall during this week due to brief and light passing showers. The dryness was further enhanced by an anticyclone over the southern Gulf of Mexico resulting in very dry upper levels, producing a west to south-westerly upper level flow in addition to a neutral to convergent pattern being observed. Despite having a few frontal systems passing just north of the area, these had little impacts on our weather.

Conditions shifted in week two with an increase in low level moisture and shower activity across the country from March 8 to 12 as a result of a cold front that became stationary over northern Honduras. Surface winds backed to a moderate and occasionally gusty east to north-easterly flow as the strong Bermuda high continued to build over the northwest Caribbean advecting moisture from over the northwest Caribbean. However, moisture levels remained low and very dry in the upper levels. The anticyclone persisted at the upper levels spanning the Caribbean Basin supporting a west to south-westerly flow through to March 12 before becoming more north-westerly as the ridge shifted and progressed to the east and an Upper Level TUTT prevailed over the western north Atlantic and the central Caribbean. Isolated showers were observed over northern portions of the country during this period while central and southern locations received the bulk of rainfall from the moist east to north-easterly flow. This increase in moisture also lead to an increase in low level cloud cover with mostly cumuliform and layered clouds. Towards the end of week two, ridging became the dominant feature over Belize and the wider Caribbean with fairer conditions returning and only isolated showers observed over the mountainous areas.

Fair conditions persisted into week three as the high pressure ridge continued to support a moderate, gusty and dry east to southerly surface flow. For the most part, the weather was mainly fair, warm and mostly dry across the country through to March 18, except for the development over an isolated afternoon thunderstorm over southern areas on the 18th. An upper level ridge west of the area resulted in a west to south-westerly flow over Belize while a TUTT extended from the Northeast to South-western Caribbean. The upper level moisture continue low over our area with a prevailing neutral to weakly convergent pattern providing little upper level support for the development of any significant convection. A surge of moisture induced by a cold front extending from the Yucatan Peninsula to western Cuba along with a surface trough over the eastern Yucatan, affected the country March 19 to 21. As a result, a moist north to north-easterly airflow prevailed and was enhanced by a digging upper level trough over the Bay of Campeche producing a southwester upper level flow, supporting the development of a few early morning showers over central and southern areas, moving inland in the afternoon on March 19. The shower then became isolated by March 20 and 21 affecting mainly offshore and southern coastal areas.

Warm and dry conditions dominated the country in the last week of the month as the high pressure ridge dominated the region and seasonably warm and dry conditions began to set in. A moderate to gusty east to south-easterly prevail. Little to no rainfall was observed over most areas, except for over extreme northern Belize on March 22 and over some central and southern areas on March 29 and 30, due to the proximity of a stationary front over central Cuba and a slightly moist east to north-easterly surface flow, respectively. This supported a few showers in those regions. The upper levels also continued very dry and stable due to ridging aloft and a west to south-westerly component up to March 25. An upper level TUTT orientated east to west was observed over the central Caribbean and the upper level flow became north to north-westerly across the area to end the month.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was near normal to slightly above normal over most areas of the country, except for the Corozal and some parts of the Cayo and Stann Creek districts where above normal rainfall was observed due to the proximity of the cold fronts that passed north of the country and the periodic moist north-easterly airflow. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show near normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/night-time temperatures were also near normal for all the stations except for Belmopan in the west and Punta Gorda station in the south.

Monthly Rainfall Summary



Monthly Maximum Temperatures



Monthly Minimum Temperatures



Rainfall Observed: March 2021 (mm)



Rainfall Observed: March 2021 (% Above/Below Average)

I am looking forward to seeing the April stats - just from memory so far has not appeared to be a normal April weather pattern.

Monthly Weather Summary, April 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

April is climatologically the driest month of the year in Belize. The month is characterized by dry, warm and hazy conditions. An occasional late-season cold front may cross country. Whenever such systems cross at this time of the year, they typically produce very intense thunderstorm activity.

The first few days of April 2021 were uncharacteristic as a relatively moist northeasterly airflow prevailed on the 1st and a late-season cold front crossed the country during the morning of the 2nd. A few showers affected most areas but particularly central and southern areas. Conditions remained slightly moist from the 3rd to the 6th as the frontal boundary stalled near the eastern coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Skies were mostly cloudy during this period due to the dominance of thick cirrus clouds but shower activity was minimal with only brief showers over central and southern areas on the 4th and over northern areas on the 6th.

A slack pressure gradient supported light easterly to southeasterly winds from the 7th to the 8th and moisture gradually decreased giving way to generally fair conditions with only isolated shower activity.

Seasonably warm and mostly dry conditions set in from the 9th to the 17th across the country as heat lows developed over Mexico and extended a trough over the area which is typical for this time of year. Except for isolated thunderstorms over the Maya Mountains and near the western border during the afternoon times, conditions remained relatively dry during this period.

The 18th started off mainly fair, hot and dry then a squall line developed during the late afternoon/early evening over the western part of the country but quickly spread to other areas by sunset. This feature generated strong to severe thunderstorms across the country but especially over some areas in the Cayo and Toledo districts. The activity persisted into the latter part of the night and affected mainly central coastal areas.

Moisture increased slightly from the 19th to the 20th due to a pre-frontal trough positioned just west of the country. A few showers affected most areas but especially central areas during the night of the 19th and southern districts by evening time on the 20th. The frontal boundary remained over the southern Gulf of Mexico where the tail-end eventually dissipated.

The remainder of the month was characterized by fair, warm and dry conditions as the Atlantic High Pressure system dominated and supported moderate to gusty easterly to southeasterly winds from the 21st to the 30th. Only afternoon and evening isolated thunderstorms developed over the mountains and inland areas during this period, with no significant rainfall.

In summary the typical warm and dry weather finally set in around the second week of April 2021, however no severe heat waves occurred. The 2nd-3rd saw the passage of the only cold front for the month while the proximity of a pre-frontal trough on the 18th triggered severe thunderstorm activity and heavy rainfall over some areas in the west and south.

The graphs and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperature recorded during the month of April 2021. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was above normal for some areas in the Orange Walk and Belize districts as well as coastal areas of the Stann Creek district, but normal to below normal for the remainder of the country. Maximum/daytime temperatures were close to normal over most areas except for Central Farm and Melinda where temperatures were warmer than usual. Nighttime (minimum) temperatures were warmer than normal for all stations except for Punta Gorda where nighttime temperatures were slightly cooler than normal.

Monthly Rainfall Summary



Monthly Maximum Temperatures



Monthly Minimum Temperatures



Rainfall Observed: April 2021 (mm)



Rainfall Observed: April 2021 (% Above/Below Average)

Monthly Weather Summary, May 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

May marks the end of the 2021 dry season and early May typically the onset of the rainy season for the Toledo district which then moves progressively northward with the season starting over most areas by late May and over the entire country by early June. The 2021 rainy season was no different as it officially started around May 5th in the Toledo district and in the second dekad of month (11-20th) over the remainder of the country except for Central Farm in the west whose season started early on May 2nd.

The Atlantic high pressure system dominated our weather during the first week of May supporting a light to moderate east to south-easterly airflow near the surface which became occasionally gusty as the pressure gradient tightened around the 3rd and 4th. Low level moisture remained at a minimal May 1st through 5th before becoming relatively moist towards end the week. At the upper levels, conditions were slightly more moist and neutral to weakly convergent with ridging as the main feature and an upper level TUTT over the western Caribbean that supported a west to south-westerly flow becoming north to north-westerly. This led to hot, dry and hazy conditions over the country with only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms concentrated over the mountains, inland and near the western border.

An increase in low level moisture in week two as a result of the close proximity to a stationary front over Bahamas and north eastern Cuba supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms on May 8 and 9, especially over the Toledo district. Another stationary front approached the area on May 14 resulting in a few showers and thunderstorms around the country. The remainder of the week saw mainly fair weather conditions with only brief isolated showers as the Azores high dominated the area producing relatively dry conditions and a moderate east-south-easterly airflow.

Fair and relatively dry conditions persisted into week three as the high pressure ridge continued to support a moderate, gusty and dry east to southerly surface flow. Conditions started to become moist and unstable over the area around the 18th due to a trough over Mexico and northern Central America and a low pressure area with a 40% chance of development over the western Gulf of Mexico. This led to the surface winds backing and becoming more east and north-easterly and an Omega pattern caused by high amplitude ridge extending over the northern south America to the western Caribbean, trough over the central and eastern Caribbean and a ridge over the north Atlantic resulted in a west to south-westerly upper level flow. Thus, both low and upper level moisture increased and a divergent upper level pattern developed supporting the increase in afternoon thunderstorms over southern and inland areas from the 18th to 20th with several thunderstorms, showers and rain affecting mostly central and southern areas overnight into May 21.

A trough over the Yucatan Peninsula persisted to the west of the country with ridging over the western Caribbean producing a light to moderate and moist easterly flow in the last week of May. Moisture continued to be advected over the area, supporting showers and thunderstorms across the country, especially over the central and southern portions late afternoon and evening. These showers were supported and further enhanced by a moist and divergent upper level pattern with a south-westerly component. This activity lasted until May 26 and signalled the official start of the 2021 rainy season for Belize over most areas. Drier conditions began to set in the last few days of the month in what would become the start of a dry spell as ridging prevailed in a relatively dry low level and neutral pattern over the area leading to mostly fair conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms mostly inland and south.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, despite the early start of the raining season, rainfall was near normal over most central and southern parts of the country, except for the northern districts where below normal rainfall was observed. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show near normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/night-time temperatures were above normal for all the stations except for Central Farm in the west and Punta Gorda station in the south.

Monthly Rainfall Summary



Monthly Maximum Temperatures



Monthly Minimum Temperatures



Rainfall Observed: May 2021 (mm)



Rainfall Observed: May 2021 (% Above/Below Average)

Monthly Weather Summary, June 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

June marks the start of the 2021 wet/Atlantic hurricane season and is typically the month where most stations observe their fist rainfall peak in the annual cycle. By June, the rainy season had officially started across the country. Despite the early start of the 2021 rainy season which started around mid-May for most areas, the month of June saw a dry spell across most areas. Rainfall is typically attributed to Upper Level Troughs, Surface Troughs, Tropical waves, Tropical storms and Hurricanes which moves westward through the Caribbean and. An average of two upper-level troughs, four surface troughs, one mid to upper level low and fifteen tropical waves would pass over the country in June, however, only two surface troughs and four tropical waves crossed the country with two of the TW being weak.

After the early start of the 2021 rainy season, the country began to go through a dry spell as ridging dominated the area. Low and upper level moisture was minimal with subsidence for the first two days of week one and this supported mainly fair weather and isolated showers. Despite a slight increase in low level moisture for the remainder of the week, ridging and continued subsidence at the upper levels kept showers and thunderstorm activity isolated and brief over the country. The ridge supported a light to moderate easterly surface flow while a TUTT low over the central Cuba extending to the southwest Caribbean produced a north-westerly wind component at the upper levels.

An increase in low level moisture continued in week two due to a surface trough over the Yucatan and southern Mexico, however, the North Atlantic Ridge was the dominant feature over the Caribbean Basin. At the upper levels, conditions also became moist and neutral to weakly divergent leading to an increase in showers and thunderstorm activity overnight and early mornings over most areas of the country, especially over southern areas. This activity was enhanced by an anti-cyclone over the area giving upper level outflow and a tropical wave advecting moisture over the country as it approached the area. The upper levels winds were primarily north-westerly during this period becoming west to south-westerly at intervals.

Moist and unstable conditions continued into week three over the country as a low-pressure system developed over southwestern Mexico, west of Belize, which later became potential tropical cyclone number three. The passage of a tropical wave across the country on June 15 to 16 further enhanced instability and moisture over the country. This moisture and instability extended through to the upper levels with an upper-level anti-cyclone producing a north to north-westerly flow. Divergent conditions at the upper levels provided outflow and supported the development of deep convection over most areas from June 15 to June 19 leading to the development of showers and thunderstorms, especially over the Orange Walk, Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo districts due to the tropical wave. As potential tropical cyclone three which became tropical depression Claudette moved further away from our area and impacted south-eastern United States and the tropical wave continued westward, moisture levels in the upper levels decreased with only some residual low-level moisture, resulting in drier conditions across the country. The upper levels also became neutral to weakly convergent. Riding supported an east to south-easterly airflow over the area and only isolated showers and thunderstorms prevailed on June 20 and 21, despite another weak tropical wave crossing on June 20th.

During the last week of June, two weak tropical waves traversed the area and crossed over Belize on June 22 and June 27. Relatively moist conditions prevailed in the low levels during this period with a dry spell om June 23 and 24 as the North Atlantic High-Pressure Ridge extended over the Caribbean. The ridge pattern over the area supported an east to south-easterly moderate to occasionally gusty surface flow. At the upper levels, the anticyclone over Mexico supported a north to north-westerly wind component, except for June 27 where the flow was south-westerly, and conditions were mostly moist through to the end of the month. The upper-level pattern was neutral to weakly convergent supporting only isolated showers and thunderstorms across the country, except for a few more over some southern and central locations. With the passage of a tropical wave on June 27 and a mid-level low which was reflected near the surface over the Honduras/Nicaragua border, a few showers, thunderstorms, and periods of rain were observed over most areas starting in northern and central locations early morning and spreading to inland and southern areas by the afternoon. A divergent pattern at the upper levels provided outflow for these thunderstorms to develop. The moist and unstable conditions persisted to the end of the month.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, the country suffered from several dry spells with rainfall being mostly attributed to low levels moisture and a few tropical waves/surface troughs. Thus, rainfall was below normal over most areas. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show near normal to slightly above normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/night-time temperatures were near normal to slightly above normal for most the stations except for the Towerhill, Belmopan and Punta Gorda stations were below normal night-time temperatures was observed.

Monthly Rainfall Summary



Monthly Maximum Temperatures



Monthly Minimum Temperatures



Rainfall Observed: June 2021 (mm)



Rainfall Observed: June 2021 (% Above/Below Average)

Monthly Weather Summary, July 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

July typically is one of the months for the peak of tropical waves which is a contributor to the rainfall normally observed during the month. Rainfall is typically attributed to Upper-Level Troughs, Tropical waves and mid to upper-level lows which moves westward through the Caribbean. An average of three upper-level troughs, four mid to upper level low and eighteen tropical waves would pass over the country in July, however, only five tropical waves crossed the country with only one strong wave and a few dry spells were observed across most areas.

Conditions were relatively moist over the country for the first week of July in both the low and upper levels, with a light to moderate east to south-easterly surface airflow. Tropical Storm Elsa formed and was over the Northern Caribbean with a ridge pattern over the wider Caribbean. An inverted trough near Cuba and Jamaica resulted in a north-easterly upper-level flow which veered to the southwest after the trough moved west and an anticyclone moved into the area. Moisture advected over Belize due to the inverted trough and a tropical waved that crossed the country on July 4, produced a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mostly over central, southern, and coastal portions of the country. A weakly divergent pattern further enhanced showery activity on July 4 while neutral conditions persisted for the remainder of the week. The dry day during this week was on July 2.

Low level moisture decreased in week two, except for July 13 when a tropical wave crossed the country. At the upper levels, a patch of dry air prevailed through to July 10, then an increase in moisture was observed. Near the surface, the North Atlantic Ridge continued to be the dominant feature over the Caribbean Basin with a moderate east to south-easterly flow while an inverted trough over the western Caribbean produced a north-easterly flow and a convergent upper-level pattern up to July 10. These conditions supported mainly fair and windy weather with only isolated showers and thunderstorms, except for a few more over southern areas. The approach and passage of a tropical wave on July 13, supported by an upper-level ridge over Central America leading to a south-westerly flow and an increase in low and upper-level moisture and instability over the area. This wave produced showers and thunderstorms around the country enhanced by a weakly divergent upper-level pattern.

High pressure ridge persisted into week 3 with relatively dry conditions near the surface up to July 17, thereafter, low level moisture began to increase and remained moist until the end of the week. An east to north-easterly surface airflow prevailed throughout the week. Conditions at the upper levels were relatively moist for this week with an upper-level trough over the area, however, the upper-level pattern continued neutral expect for when a tropical wave passed the country. Fair weather prevailed on July 15 and 16 with an upper-level ridge over the area suppressing the development of any deep convective activity and only isolated showers and thunderstorms were observed on radar imagery, except for a few more over inland and southern areas of the 16th. Conditions became moist and unstable on July 17 as one of two tropical waves approached the area. The first wave crossed the country on July 18 and supported several outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms around the country with an extreme thunderstorm cell developing northwest of Sandhill village. The second wave crossed on July 20 with showers and thunderstorms continuing around the country, especially over central, southern and western areas and gusty low-level winds.

A light east to north-easterly surface airflow prevailed for most of the week becoming east to south-easterly flow on the last day of the month. This was as a result of a tropical wave and a TUTT induced trough near Belize and the Yucatan that reflected down to the surface. The week stated off relatively dry with low moisture levels near the surface and generally isolated showers and thunderstorms around the country. Moisture levels increased as the week progressed with the TUU/TI trough lingering over the area producing a weakly divergent upper-level pattern and providing outflow for the development of deep convection. On July 28, the TI/TW supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over most areas along with an isolated squall line mostly over the Cayo district. Showers and thunderstorms persisted into July 29 across the country with a temporary break on July 30 and only isolated showers and thunderstorms over central and offshore areas. Moist and unstable conditions prevailed to end the month with some showers and a few thunderstorms around the country as a result a moist south-westerly upper-level flow caused by the upper level TUTT and an upper-level trough over the country.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, despite the passage of several tropical waves and upper-level trough during the month that contributed to the rainfall, the country had a few dry spells with rainfall being concentrated mostly over central and northern areas. Thus, rainfall was normal to above normal over northern and central areas, except for the Belize district and below normal over the south. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show near normal to slightly above normal maximum/daytime and minimum/night-time temperatures for most the stations except for the Central Farm station where slightly below normal night-time temperatures was observed.

Monthly Rainfall Summary



Monthly Maximum Temperatures



Monthly Minimum Temperatures



Rainfall Observed: July 2021 (mm)



Rainfall Observed: July 2021 (% Above/Below Average)

Monthly Weather Summary, August 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

August in Belize is typically known as the "Mauga Season" where a marked decrease in rainfall activity is normally observed. Rainfall is normally attributed Upper-Level Troughs, Tropical waves, Cold Core Lows and Mid to Upper-Level Trough. An average of five upper-level troughs, five mid to upper level low and sixteen tropical waves and three cold core lows would pass over the country in August. However, only four tropical waves crossed the country with one of the TWs being weak. Most of the activity during the month was due to a persistent TUTT low at the upper levels and the proximity of several tropical systems to Belize.

The north Atlantic high-pressure ridge dominated the area supporting a light to moderate and relatively east to north-easterly airflow over Belize in week 1. Most of the moisture over the area was concentrated in the low levels below 750hPa, except for August 7, where a decrease in both low and upper-level moisture was observed. An anticyclone was analysed at the upper levels over Belize with a TUTT low over the Yucatan Peninsula. This resulted in a west to north-westerly upper-level component August 1 to 5 becoming more northerly on August 6 and 7 as the upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula backed over Belize from the west. Ridging at the upper levels supported mostly subsident conditions over northern Belize with slightly divergent conditions over the central and southern portions of the country. As a result, mainly fair weather was observed over most areas for much of the week supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms except for August 2 where on and off outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms affects most areas, with heavier rainfall affecting the south due to the presence of an TUTT induced trough over the area. The second wet day for this week was on August 6, where a divergent upper levels and relatively moist low levels supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms around this country in the morning, decreasing and becoming fair by the afternoon.

Week 2 started off moist and unstable as the upper level TUTT low was analysed over the Yucatan and Northern Belize leading to an increase in moisture while a neutral to divergent pattern provided outflow for the development of deep convection over the area. Most of the heavy rainfall activity was concentrated over southern and some central areas, while isolated showers and thunderstorms were observed over the remainder of the country of august 8 to 9. The surface flow was east to south-easterly with a south-westerly component at the upper levels. On August 10, a tropical wave approached the country crossing on August 11 with showers and thunderstorms affecting most areas of the country as a moist east to north-easterly airflow prevailed. A decrease in moisture and showery activity was observed on August 12 and 13 as the north Atlantic high-pressure ridge was the main feature dominating the area. Both the lower and upper levels were dry with subsident air aloft supported by an anticyclone to the east of Belize. The week ended with Tropical Depression Fred centred over central Cuba on August 14 extending a trough over the NW Caribbean and supporting a light east to north-easterly flow advecting moisture over the country and leading to the development of showers and thunderstorms over northern and central Belize.

A light east to north-easterly airflow prevailed into week 3 as the high-pressure ridge was the dominant feature influencing our weather from August 15 to 17. Mainly fair weather with only isolated showers or isolated thunderstorms occurred over inland and extreme southern portions of the country. During this period, an inactive tropical wave approached the country with little to no rainfall activity as the low and upper levels were dry with neutral upper-level pattern. The ridge pattern at the upper levels produced an easterly wind component. Tropical Depression Grace was south of Haiti with Tropical Storm Fred over the northern Gulf of Mexico and newly formed Tropical Storm Henri near Bermuda. Of these systems, TD Grace that has strengthened to TS Grace was the closest system to Belize. TS Grace was west of Jamaica on August 7 and moved quickly and strengthened into a Hurricane on August 18 as it moved north- north-westward east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The proximity of Hurricane Grace led to an increase in moisture and instability over the area and troughing supported a light north-easterly flow. The upper-level moisture increased, and a divergent upper-level pattern had developed over Belize supporting some showers and thunderstorms offshore during the night-time, with a few showers and thunderstorms over some inland areas in the afternoon with periods of persistent rains over the north-western region in the evening as hurricane Grace downgraded to a tropical storm when it moved over northwest Yucatan. Lingering moisture from Grace that re-gained hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche along with upper-level support from a TUTT low over the Bay of Campeche supported showers over most places with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over the Orange Walk, Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo districts. Conditions became temporarily dry on August 21 only isolate showers and thunderstorms were observed over southern and offshore areas.

The approach and passage of a tropical wave on August 22 and 23 supported very moist and divergent conditions over Belize. The lingering TUTT low over the are provided additional lift and supported showers and thunderstorms around the country that started over the south and moved northward. Showers and thunderstorms persisted on the 24 and overnight into August 25 before activity decreased in the afternoon as moisture levels decrease. This decrease was short-lived as troughing over the northwest Caribbean supported a light northerly flow near the surface with the upper level TUTT supporting a south-westerly component due to an active tropical wave over the south-central Caribbean Sea but no significant showery activity was reported over Belize. This system became Hurricane Ida which posed no direct threat to Belize but a slack pressure gradient and the TUTT axis over Belize with moist conditions supported several outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms over coastal and northern Belize that developed and persisted through the night on August 27. A Ridge pattern began to settle over the area causing a gradual decrease in moisture as a drier east to south-easterly airflow prevailed. A neutral to weakly convergent pattern developed due to ridging at the upper levels resulting in a dry north-easterly component. The drier conditions led to fairer conditions with a few showers and isolated thunderstorm over the coastal and northern areas.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, most of the country experienced below normal rainfall except for a few central and southern locations. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show slightly above normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/night-time temperatures were near normal except for Central Farm and Savannah where slightly cooler night-time temperatures was observed.

Monthly Rainfall Summary



Monthly Maximum Temperatures



Monthly Minimum Temperatures

Monthly Weather Summary, September 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

September in Belize marks the peak of the hurricane seas and the secondary maxima for rainfall over most areas. Apart from tropical systems, rainfall is typically attributed to 6 Upper-Level Troughs, 7 Tropical waves, 3 Surface Troughs, 2 Cold Core Lows and 1 Mid-Upper Level low on average. However, the passage of tropical waves and surface troughs over the area was below average resulting in below normal rainfall over most areas.

The north Atlantic high-pressure ridge prevailed over the area during week 1 supporting a light to moderate easterly surface flow. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms were observed. Conditions became moist and unstable between September 3 to 7 due to a surface trough over the area and an upper level TUTT extending into the Gulf of Honduras that lingered throughout the week. Moist conditions extending through to the upper levels and the TUTT supported divergent conditions over Belize. This led to an increase in shower and thunderstorms activity across the country, especially over northern and central locations. The wettest days during this week were September 3 and 4 as the TUTT low became stationary over Belize fuelling rainfall and thunderstorm activity.

Week 2 continued moist through to the upper levels and unstable as a tropical wave approached the area. This wave crossed the country on September 9 brining with is a few showers and thunderstorms which started over the northern parts of the country and increased during the night. Most of the rainfall activity was behind this wave with showers and thunderstorms increasing and spreading over most areas on September 10, especially over central and southern locations. The surface winds during this period were predominately easterly and became north-easterly with the passage of the wave. At the upper levels, a ridge TUTT pattern prevailed with a west to north-westerly component and neutral to weakly divergent conditions. Moisture levels began to decrease after September 11 as the ridge pattern returned with a tight pressure gradient supporting moderate to occasionally gusty east to north-easterly winds. Another tropical wave approached the country on September 13, but no significant showery activity was associated with it due to dry lower and upper-level conditions and a neutral to weakly convergent pattern hence only isolated showers and thunderstorms were observed, mostly over southern locations.

A light east to east to south-easterly airflow prevailed into week 3 as the high-pressure ridge was the dominant feature influencing our weather from September 15 to 21. The surface winds became east north-east towards the end of the week. Most of the moisture was capped below 850 hPa while the upper levels continued dry. Mainly fair weather with overnight showers or isolated thunderstorms occurred over northern, coastal, and southern portions of the country. On September 18, a tropical wave coupled with an inverted trough at the upper levels crossed the country with a few showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the south and mountainous areas. Tropical Depression Peter was to the northeast of Puerto Rico and Tropical Storm Rose was to the northwest of Cabo Verde Islands on September 21 but none of these systems posed a threat to Belize. The upper-level ridge supported an east to north-easterly flow and the TUTT which has become zonal persisted in the area.

Conditions became moister and more unstable during the last week of the month as moisture convergence occurred over the area due to an early season cold front over the Bay of Campeche. Winds were light and an east to north-easterly surface flow prevailed. At the upper levels, the nigh centre over the area supported a north to north-westerly flow along with a neutral to divergent pattern. Some showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms affected moistly southern, coastal, and offshore areas until September 27. Thereafter, moisture levels decreased in both the low and upper levels and the upper-level pattern became convergent at the end of the month. Mainly fair weather closed out the month with isolated showers and thunderstorms over the south and along the western border of September 30. At the end of this month, Hurricane Sam and Tropical Storm Victor were located to the northeast of the Lesser Islands and south of the Cabo Verde islands, respectively.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, most of the country experienced below normal rainfall. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show slightly above normal maximum/daytime temperatures and minimum/night-time temperatures were near normal except for Central Farm where slightly cooler night-time temperatures was observed.

Monthly Rainfall Summary



Monthly Maximum Temperatures



Monthly Minimum Temperatures



Rainfall Observed: September 2021 (mm)



Rainfall Observed: September 2021 (% Above/Below Average)

Monthly Weather Summary, October 2021

National Meteorological Service of Belize

October is one of the months were tropical storms and hurricanes peaks, but this month was rather quiet with not much tropical activity. Rainfall can also be attributed to on average 3 Upper-Level Troughs, 5 Tropical waves and 1 Surface Troughs. During the month, four tropical waves crossed the country and several surface troughs over the area near the northwest Caribbean and the Yucatan. Overall, rainfall was below average over most areas, except for parts of central coastal Belize.

The first week saw relatively moist conditions over most areas in both the low and upper levels on most days due to a moist and light east to north-easterly airflow from surface troughs lingering over the area and the approach and passage of a tropical wave on October 7. At the upper levels, ridging was the dominant feature which supported a north-easterly wind component and neutral to weakly convergent pattern for most of the week. On October 6 and 7, the approaching tropical wave led to upper-level conditions becoming weakly divergent with the high-pressure ridge over the western Caribbean supporting a more south-easterly flow. A few showers and affected most areas during the beginning of the week due to lingering moisture from the passage over a tropical wave at the end of the previous month. A temporary break was observed at the middle of the week, but rainfall activity increased on October 6 and 7 due to the tropical wave where some showers, periods of rain and thunderstorms affected most areas along with early morning fog on October 7.

Week 2 continued moist through October 8 and 9 with a slack pressure gradient and a light easterly flow over Belize and the northwest Caribbean. Ridging continues to dominate at the upper level and a north-westerly flow prevailed with a weakly divergent pattern. This supported showers and thunderstorms across the country with most activity occurring during the night, then affecting mostly northern and southern areas during the daytime. Moisture levels began to decrease over the area leading the low and upper levels to become dry. Showery activity decreased over most areas October 10 to 14 supporting only isolated showers or thunderstorms over the Maya mountains and southern Belize. A weak tropical wave crossed the country on October 12 and 15 but not much activity was associated with these waves. In the upper levels, troughing was observed at the levels over Belize because of an upper level low over the Bahamas and a north-westerly upper-level wind component was observed.

The upper-level trough extended to the surface supporting a light east to north-easterly flow over the area and only a few showers over the mountains and southern Belize on October 15 in week 3. Moisture levels were relatively low, but a gradual increase was observed at first in the low levels then extended to the upper levels by October 18. Most of the showery activity continued to affect the mountainous areas and southern Belize while conditions continue neutral at the upper levels over the area. An increase in low and upper-level moisture was observed on October 18 through to October 21 as a cold front approached the area and became stationary over the Bay of Campeche before lifting north of the area. This led to an increase in cloudiness and instability further supported by a weakly divergent upper-level pattern due to a south-westerly upper-level flow from a ridge over the western Caribbean. Thus, showers and thunderstorms developed and continued to affect southern Belize on October 19 before increase and affecting most areas. On October 20, a diurnal pattern was observed in the rainfall activity with showers and thunderstorms affecting southern and some inland areas during the night-time and affected northern, coastal, and offshore areas during the day. This continued into October 21 affecting mostly northern areas and dissipated by with afternoon with radar imagery showing rainfall activity across the country by nightfall.

Moist conditions prevailed going into the last week of the month with light easterly surface flow and a south-westerly component at the upper levels influenced by an upper-level jet north of the area. A few early morning showers and thunderstorms affected mostly northern, central, and offshore areas and decreased in the afternoon on October 22. October 23 and 24 were relatively dry, however, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms were observed primarily over southern and inland areas. Another increase in moisture and instability occurred on October 25 as a cold front moved into the northern Gulf of Mexico. October 26 and 28 saw ridging as the dominant feature over the area and supported a dry and warm south-easterly flow and only a few showers mostly over the mountain and southern areas. The front moved over the north-western Yucatan on October 28 extending from northern Florida. This front was the first front of the season to cross Belize and did so in October 29, however, not much rainfall activity was associated with it as only a few showers were observed from pre-frontal activity over central, southern, and offshore areas overnight on the 28th. The front became stationary on October 30 over north- eastern Nicaragua and supported a cool north-westerly surface flow. The high pressure behind the front supported fair and dry conditions behind the front. The lowest temperature was observed at the Central Farm station with a value of 15.6 oC in the Cayo District on October 31.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, most of the country continue to experience below normal rainfall. In terms of temperatures, most of the stations sampled show above normal maximum/daytime temperatures and slightly above normal minimum/night-time temperatures over most areas, except for Savannah in the south and Central Farm in the west, where near normal maximum temperatures and below normal minimum temperatures were observed, respectively.

Monthly Rainfall Summary



Monthly Maximum Temperatures



Monthly Minimum Temperatures



Rainfall Observed: October 2021 (mm)



Rainfall Observed: October 2021 (% Above/Below Average)