As I was checking into Banana Beach a couple of weeks ago, I had a conversation with a gentleman who was checking out. He said that he works for an NGO (I really wish I could remember the name of the organization) which is providing counsel to the Government of Belize regarding the reef. He had spent the prior several weeks exploring the reef and documenting the very evident damage. While it's widely recognized that Belize lost nearly half of its reef in 1998 when global warming and the "El Nino" weather phenomenon combined to cause the highest sea temperatures ever recorded worldwide (
http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0609-01.htm ), this organization's concern is centered more on the damage being caused by the ongoing development of the cayes. Above and beyond the lack of infrastructure sufficient to support development of the cayes, he stated that the sheer volume of sewage waste alone is dramatically negatively impacting the reef. It was his theory that the present uncontrolled growth on the cayes is significantly contributing to the destruction of the reef, the very thing upon which Belize is dependant to attract tourists.
His is not the only organization expressing this concern:
"The 2004 Reefs at Risk analysis rated 63 percent of Belize's reefs as being threatened by human activities. Sediment and pollution from land-based sources were identified as a threat to about half of Belize's reefs. Two major sources of nutrients entering Belize's coastal waters are the run-off of fertilizers and the discharge of domestic sewage. Land conversion and agricultural activities are estimated to reach reefs predominantly in the southern half of the country, which is impacted by the plumes of large Guatemalan and Honduran rivers. Large amounts of fertilizers are used on banana plantations located in the central and southern parts of Belize near rivers in areas of high rainfall. Citrus plantations in the coastal plains to the south also require the use of fertilizers. In the north, sugar cane is the predominant crop.
"Coastal development was rated as a threat to 11 percent of reefs, especially around the larger cayes and tourist centers such as Amergis Caye and San Pedro Town, which are rapidly growing as a result of tourist-based economic activity. Also, marine-based activities threaten an estimated 8 percent of reefs, particularly around the port facilities of Belize City and the cruise ship anchorage at Goff's Caye.
"Tourism, including the cruise-ship industry, is focused primarily on coastal centers and is rapidly becoming the major economic force. Direct damage to corals has been reported from areas with intensive boat and diving activity, including anchor damage, boat groundings, and direct impacts from divers. A high proportion of visitors to Belize make use of the marine resources. For example, in 2002, out of 186,097 visitors to the country, 46,404 visited the Hol Chan Marine Reserve."
Seems to me that unlimited quantities of "the dream" simply are not available. Without significant control everyone's dream is quickly going to turn into a nightmare...
Postscript:
As Amanda notes, the Island may - some day - be able to support thousands more people, but the reef won't. And without the reef there will be considerably fewer tourists resulting in considerably fewer jobs resulting in... well, you get the point.
AmbergrisCaye.com 
