2017 Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf Of Mexico Hurricane Season Forecast (Updated May 20th)
Latest indications continue to point to the potential that the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season may be more active across the central and eastern Atlantic than what we previously thought back in early April. The big reason for this forecast of a more active season is due to the fact that a El Nino may never really form this summer or autumn and if it does, it may end up being quite weak. In addition, the ocean water temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic have warmed quite a bit over the past month. The combination of these two factors plus other indications point to the potential for an average number of named storms with the Lesser Antilles, the eastern Caribbean, the Bahamas and the US East Coast at risk from at least 1 tropical storm or hurricane. In addition, I continue to believe that we will see the formation of at least a tropical storm in the western Atlantic during the month of June. The area I think has the highest probability of formation is around the Bahamas, the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.