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Monthly Weather Summary, November 2020

National Meteorological Service of Belize

November marks the end of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season and the start of the cool transition into the dry season for Belize. By this time, rainfall across the country associated with tropical cyclones and waves typically begin to decrease. During this month, the systems that contribute to the monthly rainfall are Upper Level Troughs (UTLs), Surface Troughs (SfTs), and the increase of frontal systems such as cold and stationary fronts.

November 2020 started off moist and unstable due to the development from Tropical Storm Eta which formed east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border. A moist northeasterly surface airflow prevailed, advecting moisture over mainland Belize. This resulted in increased cloudiness and the development of moderate to heavy rainfall particularly in the central regions of the country on the afternoon of November 1. As Eta approached the coast of Nicaragua on November 2, it rapidly intensified and became a major category 4 hurricane tracking on a west to west- southerly path. The pressure gradient tightened over the area leading to a moderate to occasionally gusty north to northwesterly surface flow between November 2 and 3. Conditions became very moist in the low through to the upper levels in a neutral to weakly divergent environment and supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly offshore the coast of Belize and beyond the barrier reef. Numerous showers, periods of rain and a few thunderstorms developed and persisted across the country on November 4 as hurricane Eta moved inland over Central America. This activity persisted and peaked on November 5 especially over the Maya mountains, Central and Coastal Belize as Tropical Depression Eta re-emerged in the Gulf of Honduras and paralleled the coast of Belize moving towards the Northeast and away from the country on November 6 towards Cayman Island and Western Cuba. The Baldy Beacon station in the Mountain Pine Ridge area observed over 20 inches of rainfall of the 10 to 20 inches forecasted to affect the country, while Central Coastal and offshore areas such as Gales Point, the airport station and San Pedro observed over 15 inches between November 1 to 6. The northern portions recorded at least 5 inches of rainfall. Major flooding occurred as a result of this system, especially in the Cayo and Belize districts damaging homes, roads and other infrastructure. By late night November 6 through to November 7, only isolated showers were observed across the country as conditions became less moist and unstable over the area with Eta, now re-strengthened to a Tropical Storm Eta moved further away from Belize, despite a polar trough being located east of Belize associated with a low pressure system near Cuba southwestward into the Gulf of Honduras.

After the passage of Eta, a gradual decrease in moisture and instability occurred supporting the development of only isolated showers. Mainly fair and dry conditions prevailed in week 2 between November 8 to 13 due to a broad circulation from Tropical Storm Eta and a slack pressure gradient which supported a light west to south westerly surface flow across Belize. During this period, the upper level pattern was neutral to weakly convergent due to a high-pressure ridge over the Caribbean basin and a north and northeasterly upper level wind component. By November 13 a tropical wave which was showing signs of development over the Central Caribbean developed into Tropical Depression 31 then later into Tropical Storm Iota that same day. Over Belize, the surface flow was a light northwesterly flow which veered to the northeast. Generally fair weather prevailed at first on the 13th before the development of a few showers and periods of rain over the northern districts and the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains. Low level moisture increased over Belize on November 14 with a trough over the northwest Caribbean supporting an increase in cloudiness with layered and stratified clouds that supported consistent rain over central coastal areas but only isolated showers and thunderstorms elsewhere with significant deep convection inhibited by dry and convergent upper levels over the area.

The third week of November saw another increase in rainfall activity across Belize as the country's rainfall began to be influenced by the development of Tropical Storm Iota over the southern Caribbean Sea. TS Iota moved in a west to southwesterly direction towards the Nicaragua/Honduras border on November 15 and light northeasterly surface flow prevailed with a slack pressure gradient and a ridging, dry and convergent pattern at the upper levels with only isolated showers over the northern districts. As Iota approached Nicaragua/Honduras as a category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph on November 16, the pressure gradient tightened over Belize supporting a gusty north and northeasterly surface flow in a moist and unstable environment, however, shower activity remained isolated and concentrated mostly over offshore and southern areas. This changed on November 17 with skies becoming cloudy to overcast across the country and by late afternoon, the rains from Iota had begun affecting most areas. By November 18, Iota became a remnant low as it moved inland over Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador and rainfall from the system peaked over Belize across most stations. During this week, rainfall persisted though to the 21st as a trough over the northwest Caribbean and a tropical wave that approached and crossed the country on November 21 continued to support heavy continuous rain and frequent showers around the country, especially over northern central and offshore locations. The showers and rain with only isolated thunderstorms were further enhanced by a strong northerly swell, a moist and divergent upper level pattern due to an upper level trough over the area and a south to southeasterly upper level flow. Maximum accumulated rainfall during the November 16 to 20 period ranged from 8 to 12 inches over central and northern areas.

The last week of November was dominated by a ridging pattern at the mid to upper levels supporting a southwesterly upper level wind component and a relatively dry and neutral upper level pattern. Most of the moisture over the area was capped below 700 hPa supporting only shallow convection and cloudy spells between November 22 to 27. Some of this low level moisture being advected over the country was due to early season cold fronts north of the area over the southern Gulf of Mexico and a slight east to northeast surface flow. Showery activity was mostly isolated with periods of rain affecting northern, central and inland areas. The month ended off mainly fair and dry with a neutral upper level pattern and an anticyclone over the country supporting a south-southeasterly component and only a few light periods of rain in the early mornings over the north. On November 30, an approaching cold front over the Yucatan Peninsula seen on satellite imagery, extending just north of the country supported a patch of stratocumulus clouds and towering cumulus over southern Belize leading to a line of deep convection producing periods of rain and a few thunderstorms over the south.

The graph and maps below summarize the total rainfall and average maximum and minimum temperatures. They also give an indication of how these readings compare to the normal for the month across the stations sampled. As can be seen, rainfall was above normal over the entire country due to the indirect impacts of tropical cyclones Eta and Iota as well as an active tropical wave. In terms of temperatures, the stations sampled show near normal maximum/daytime temperatures, while minimum/nighttime temperatures were above normal for all the stations except for Punta Gorda in the south.

Monthly Rainfall Summary



Monthly Maximum Temperatures



Monthly Minimum Temperatures



Rainfall Observed: November 2020 (mm)



Rainfall Observed: November 2020 (% Above/Below Average)