AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Here comes Dean

Every update seems to have the eye passing further and further south on the Yucatan peninsula. I feel so useless up here in Iowa, not that there would be a thing I could do if I was on Ambergris.

Please stay safe. My thoughts are with everyone. Jean

If anyone wants to view images from today's storm preparations, we have updated our blog http://exploringbelizecontinues.blogspot.com

Hey Collyk,
Thanks for the update and photo's -
I am sure everyone who has ever been to Ambergris Caye...
Wants up-dates on y'all.
Take care and Take cover.
All the Best,
Ruth

I wish I could say that it is a pleasure, but it helps us to feel in touch. Meanwhile......."Extremely dangerous Dean scraping the southern coast of
Jamaica...
At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the government of Belize has issued a
tropical storm watch from dangriega northward to the border with
Mexico."

OK, so this is where the discussion is at -- I was foolishly looking in the Weather Forum -- silly me! ;-)

'Lena

Well, it is now 32 hours before the storm is expected and it doesn't look good:

"The initial motion is 280/17. There is no major change to the forecast thinking...although model guidance has been trending southward...with nearly all of the large-scale models building the subtropical ridge westward in tandem with Dean. The upper low in the Gulf of Mexico continues westward and is not expected to be a major player in the future track of the hurricane. The official forecast has been shifted a little to the south...but still lies to the north of all the major models except for the hwrf. Although I cannot explain why...the deterministic run of the GFS is along the southern end of the guidance envelope...while the GFS ensemble members are almost uniformly along the northern edge. Because most of the guidance models lie to the south of the official forecast...some additional southward adjustments to the track are possible."

Taken from this site:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200704.disc.html#a_topad

We will close down tomorrow, and the last guests will have left Portofino by 8:00 am (18 hours before the storm).

Jan van Noord
Portofino Restaurant and Resort

Listen to Reef Radio at //ambergriscaye.com/reefradio/ for regular reports. I'm told the 10 to 6 report will be very important tonight.

Thanks for the info Simon, Very informative. Be safe Bro.

So y'all let us know what they said on the radio....So we all know what is going on with you guys...

Take care, Be safe
All the Best,
Ruth

To me, this is all quite reminiscent of Iris in 2001, which had (at that time and thus far) the same track and forecast trend as Dean today. I have starting an article on my blog at http://galenaalysoncanada.blogspot.com which I'll update in real time.