AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Here comes Dean

PLEASE do not give predictions and interpretations unless you are a weather man, and then do it on your own web site. When you quote news from the internet, please also leave the link to the article or animation, so it can be verified - no movie clips.

We do not want to spread false information that can lead to panic at this point. STAY WITH THE FACTS.

Jan van Noord
PS: Jeff, I am not talking about your post but the post you are responding to - and that has been deleted - you are 100% right.

nice Jan. thanks

...'figured that Jan, thanks. We're down the beach if you need anything. Have Sat. phone here too if BTL goes out.

-J

HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH...240
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DEAN COULD
REACH CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES
IN JAMAICA SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR
AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

track of hurricane iris, October 2001

google earth image

google earth overlay for storms
download this file and then run it

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=110283

WTNT34 KNHC 200838
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS DEAN MOVING SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...HEADED FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES...
185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 495 MILES...795
KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 926 MB...27.34 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAVES IN
JAMAICA ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9
TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...17.7 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...926 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

I hate what I'm seeing in the forecasts. It may be some consolation to be on the south side of this thing, but very little when you're talking a CAT 5. To all my friends -- I love you and you remain in my prayers. God bless and please make your personal safety your first consideration.

Most recent from NEMO here:

To All:

The Government of Belize has put the country on Red 2 as of this morning and the San Pedro Emergency Committee and the Caye Caulker Emergency Committee are advising as follows:
AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO GIVE ESSENTIALLY A DUE WESTWARD
MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...270/18.
DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR DEAN. THEREFORE...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION .. ALSO THE CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS … IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

LANDFALL FOR THE CENTRE OF VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN IS NOW FORECAST TO BE NEAR 21/0600Z 18.8N 87.0W WITH SUSTAINED MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 140 KT. NEAR 30 to 50 Miles north of Chetumal

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS THEREFORE RECOMMENDED IMMEDIATE VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF LOW LYING AREAS AND THE OUTER ISLANDS AND CAYES TO BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

NEMO IS URGING ALL RESIDENTS OF AMBERGRIS CAYE, SAN PEDRO AND CAYE CAULKER TO COMPLETE THEIR EVACUATION PLANS NOW.