AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Here comes Dean

winston: swells may be above 12 feet at the center, much erosion there. undertow currents on the beaches. the storm just wrapped up a bit tighter, so it twirls a bit more like a ballet dancer. so its spinning a bit faster. its officially cat 5. its 130 miles off the coastline of the yucatan peninsula. gives it about 6 hours at 20mph

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 20, 2007

...Eye of potentially catastrophic Hurricane Dean just a few hours
from landfall along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula...


at 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the government of Mexico has extended the
Hurricane Warning westward from Ciudad de Carmen to Chilitepec. A
Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the entire coastline of
Belize...along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
from the Belize/Mexico border northward to Cancun...and along the
West Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from south of Progresso
southward to Chilitepec. Preparations to protect life and property
along the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula should have already
been completed. Preparations elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning
area should be rushed to completion.


At 11 PM EDT...the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch from west of Chilitepec westward to
Veracruz Mexico...and a Hurricane Watch has also been issued from
Veracruz to Tampico. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.


A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect along the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Cancun to Progresso.


A tropical storm watch also remains in effect for the following
provinces of Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...and Isla de la
Juventud.


Interests elsewhere in the southern Gulf of Mexico should closely
monitor the progress of Dean.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 18.4 north...longitude 86.0 west or about 150 miles...
245 km...east of Chetumal Mexico and about 310 miles...500 km...
east-southeast of Campeche Mexico.


Dean is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast
track...the eye of Dean will make landfall along the East Coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula very early Tuesday morning. Dean will cross
the Yucatan Peninsula during the day on Tuesday and likely reach
the Bay of Campeche Tuesday night.


Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph...260 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dean is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Little change in strength
is expected prior to landfall on the East Coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Although some weakening is forecast as Dean crosses the
Yucatan Peninsula...Dean is expected to maintain hurricane strength
throughout the next 24 hours.


Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km.


The most recent minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 914 mb...26.99 inches.

Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
over The Isthmus of Tehuantepec and Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico...Belize...Guatemala...and northern Honduras...with maximum
amounts of up to 20 inches. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Storm surge flooding of 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels is
possible near and to the north of where Dean makes landfall along
the East Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.


Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...18.4 N...86.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph.
Minimum central pressure...914 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.

18.4

reef radio still online

I love hearing RR and reading your report as they read aloud! ;-)
Thanks again for everything Marty!

18.4 is my new favorite number.
...though I'll gladly swap favorites for 18.6 or 19.

they asked winston if there was any chance it would turn to the sw and he said NOTHING indicates such a thing will occur. should be worse weather for the next

6 hours til landfall. once it hits it slows. conditions will be really bad for how long they asked winston... the rear end of the storm the severe weather is of less duration. 3-4 hours on the south side, if 6hours of bad weather on the north side of the storm

don't be fooled by the apparent calm when the eye comes over. wait for the all clear.

conditions are deteriorating now over all of Belize. Waves will be up 9-14 feet, flash floods and heavy rain on the mainland

time to hunker down, to stay where we are, where the flashlight is, its time to be as safe as we possibly can. stay indoors. relax, feel free to feel you took the right precautions. then you will be ok. we have prepared for the worse case, if it doesn't get that bad then fine.

But isn't Corozol at 18.38? Too close!

MY local online news does a pretty good report on Dean...

TULUM, Mexico - Hurricane Dean strengthened into a monstrous Category 5 storm Monday night as its first rain and winds began slamming the coasts of Mexico and Belize. Thousands of tourists fled the beaches of the Mayan Riviera as it roared toward the ancient ruins and modern oil installations of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Mexico's state oil company, Petroleos de Mexico, said it was evacuating all of its more than 14,000 offshore workers in the southern Gulf of Mexico, which includes the giant Cantarell oil field. Dozens of historically significant Mayan sites also were emptied.

Dean - which has killed at least 12 people across the Caribbean - quickly picked up strength after brushing Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

By 7:35 p.m. CDT, it had sustained winds of 160 mph and was centered about 210 miles south-southeast of Tulum, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Category 5 storms - capable of catastrophic damage - are rare with only three have hit the U.S. since record-keeping began.

The eye was expected to make landfall early Tuesday morning near Chetumal, about 80 miles south of Tulum.

Cancun seemed likely to be spared a direct hit, but visitors abandoned its swank hotels to swarm outbound flights. Officials evacuated more rustic lodgings farther south, where Dean - which has killed at least 12 people across the Caribbean - was expected to smash ashore early Tuesday.

Eric Morovich of Orange County, Calif., waited outside Cancun's airport after trying unsuccessfully to book a ferry, rent a boat and charter an airplane. "The next option is swimming, I guess," he joked.

A hurricane warning was in affect from Cancun all the way south through Belize. All hospitals were closed in Belize City, the country's biggest, and authorities urged residents to leave, saying Dean is too strong for their shelters. Meteorologists said a storm surge of 12 to 18 feet was possible at the storm's center.

The storm was expected to slash across the Yucatan and emerge in the Gulf of Campeche, where Petroleos de Mexico decided Monday to shut down production on the offshore rigs that extract most of the nation's oil.

President Felipe Calderon said he would cut short a trip to Canada where he is meeting with President Bush and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

"Given (the hurricane's) progression and dangerousness, I have decided to return to Mexico soon," Calderon said in Ottawa. "I'll personally oversee the aid effort in case of a disaster."

Shutting the 407 oil wells in the Campeche Sound will result in a production loss of 2.7 million barrels of oil and 2.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day, Pemex said. Of that, about 1.7 million barrels of oil a day is exported from three Gulf ports, where Pemex was loading the final tankers before shutting them as well.

Central Mexico was next on the storm's path, though the outer bands were likely to bring rain, flooding and gusty winds to south Texas, already saturated after an unusually rainy summer.

At the southern tip of Texas, officials urged residents to evacuate ahead of the storm. "Our mission is very simple. It's to get people out of the kill zone, to get people out of the danger area, which is the coastline of Texas," said Johnny Cavazos, Cameron County's chief emergency director.

Officials in the resort town of South Padre Island distributed sandbags after a state of emergency was declared.

In Mexico, the Quintana Roo state government said about two-thirds of the 60,000 tourists in the Cancun area had left. Some camped overnight at the city's airport to ensure a flight out. Many others were turned away.

"I'm just hoping that we get out in time. We've got two little kids back in the States," Morovich said. But the heavyset man wasn't too worried about survival, saying: "It would take at least a Category 5 to blow me away."

Workers hammered plywood over the windows of hotels along the tourist strip, where the skyline is still marked with cranes used to repair the damage of Hurricane Wilma. That storm caused $3 billion in losses in 2005.

Dean could be even stronger than Wilma, which stalled over Cancun and pummeled it for a day. The fast-moving Dean was passing farther south, and was likely to deliver a brief but powerful punch to Mexico's Maya heartland.

That area stretches from Tulum south to the growing beach resort at Mahahual, where authorities evacuated hundreds of tourists on Monday. Between the two lies the 2.5 million-acre Sian Kaan nature reserve, with a 1,200-year-old network of Mayan canals.

Government anthropologists said they were preparing 13 archaeological sites for the storm, pruning trees and removing signs and vegetation that strong winds could turn into damaging projectiles.

Cancun still could face tropical-storm-force winds - forecast to extend over an area of about 75,000 square miles, about the size of Nebraska or South Dakota.

"We're leaving. You don't play around with nature," fisherman Maclovio Manuel Kanul said, pulling equipment from his beachfront fishing shack near Cancun. "We still haven't been able to recover from Wilma, and now this is coming."

Belize, just south of Mexico, evacuated 6,000 people from the country's main tourist resort, San Pedro on Ambergris Caye, and 500 or so from nearby Caye Caulker, said national emergency coordinator James Jan Mohammed. People were urged to leave low-lying areas.

Authorities evacuated Belize City's three hospitals and were moving high-risk patients to the inland capital, Belmopan, founded after 1961's Hurricane Hattie devastated Belize City. Belize City Mayor Zenaida Moya urged people to leave, saying shelters aren't strong enough to withstand a storm of Dean's size.

Dean, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, raked Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday, but both escaped the full brunt of the storm.

In Jamaica, the storm uprooted trees, flooded roads and collapsed some buildings. Downed utility poles left thousands without electricity or telephone service. Police said two men were killed: one when his house collapsed and another struck by flying debris.

Haitian officials on Monday reported two more deaths from the storm, raising the storm's death toll in the Caribbean to at least 12.

The worst storm to hit Latin America in modern times was 1998's Hurricane Mitch, which killed nearly 11,000 people and left more than 8,000 missing, most in Honduras and Nicaragua.

---

Associated Press writers contributing to this report included Karla Heusner Vernon in Ladyville, Belize; Howard Campbell in Kingston, Jamaica; Lisa Adams in Mexico City; Michael Melia in San Juan, Puerto Rico; and Stevenson Jacobs in George Town, Cayman Islands.

constant drizzle outside. winds pretty calm.