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NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RINA CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH A
SMALL EYE SEEN IN AN 1128 UTC SSMIS PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED 12Z DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE
HURRICANE IS SITUATED OVER A REGION OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR
HURRICANE INTENSITY APPEARS LIKELY. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE EXPERIENCES INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD
THE LATEST RUN OF THE LGEM MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/03...AS RINA CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN SHOULD
RESULT IN RINA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN TURNING EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
IS A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE NHC TRACK
LYING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.

BASED ON THE FASTER TRACK FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ARE NOW REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 17.4N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 17.7N 84.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.2N 85.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 19.1N 86.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 20.2N 87.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 22.0N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 22.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

Current satellite photos of the storm. Eyewall forming

Click images for a larger version. You may have to click to expand the large version to full size after it loads.

Tuesday 25th, October 2011 TIME: 9:00 am

NEMO PRESS RELEASE #3 - Hurricane RINA

At 9:00am the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.4 N, Latitude and 83.9 W, Longitude or about 284 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west northwest at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. TS force winds extends out to 115 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 15 miles from the centre. 2-4 inches of rainfall is anticipated. Rina is expected to become to major Hurricane within the next 24 hours.

The NEMO National Executive Committee met at 6:30 am this morning and discussed the projected forecast, reports and advisories. Hurricane Rina has moved both westward and northward closer towards Belize.

This morning at 6:25 a.m. 42 people were evacuated from Caye Caulker. The UB Scarlet Macaw building has been prepared to shelter the evacuees from Caye Caulker. 234 people were evacuated from San Pedro. The UB Gymnasium has been prepared to shelter the evacuees from San Pedro.

The Coast Guard has been warning and evacuating people from the atolls and surrounding Caye's. The public is advised that prevailing Sea and Wind conditions can change suddenly even when the Sky is clear. People who do not evacuate when the conditions are favourable must be aware that there will be no evacuation by NEMO once the weather conditions do not permit.

NEMO remains at Phase II-Red 1, Hurricane Watch from Belize City Northward to the Belize/ Mexican Border.

NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Hurricane Rina which has the potential to further strengthen. NEMO urges the public to pay keen attention, listen to your local radio and television for further advisories from NEMO and the National Met Service. Rina is likely to become a powerful Hurricane. Stay alert! Stay tune! Take the necessary actions!

Evacuations in San Pedro

So far so good for Belize; looking at the projected path we might be out of the cone of uncertainty and if we end up on the south side of the storm the sea should get pretty rough which can cause beach erosion and some damage to piers and dive shops. It looks like a normal day in San Pedro, as people are heading to work, nobody has started boarding up their homes yet and very few people are voluntarily evacuating. But many are grateful that NEMO is providing free evacuation for those who want to leave the islands from now.

Evacuations started since 6a.m. this morning and are scheduled until Wednesday afternoon, weather conditions permitting. The water taxi vessels will be used to carry people out of the island and NOT bringing people back in.

People wanting to return to the island will only be able to do so on personal boats or private charters or through the local airlines which are still scheduled to conduct their regular flights. NEMO encourages people not to come to the island if they do not have a place of shelter. There will also be no boat runs to Chetumal, Mexico.

Elito Arceo is arranging trips to Bomba, Maskal, and those seeking to move in that direction need to contact the NEMO office located on Barrier Reef Drive or call 226-4291/226-3654/226-3695 or 600-8672.

Full Story and photos in the Ambergris Today

Hurricane Rina strengthens, on track towards Yucatan

Hurricane Rina as seen from NOAA GOES 13 at 12:30 EDT. (NASA)

Hurricane Rina has gradually intensified over the past day, reaching category 2 strength. Aircraft reconnaissance penetrations have recently observed maximum sustained winds near 105 mph (90 knots; pressure 971 mb), just 6 mph shy of category 3 intensity. Positioned about 300 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico, it’s on a slow west-northwest jog at about 3 mph.

Conditions are expected to begin deterioriating over the eastern Yucatan in the next 24-36 hours with a possible landfall on Thursday. Hurricane warnings are posted along much of Yucatan Peninsula’s east coast in Mexico, including Cancun.

Despite its continued strengthening, Rina did not deepen explosively overnight, especially when compared to some big storms in recent times that moved across a similar sector of the tropics.

For example, Hurricane Wilma’s pressure dropped 100 mb in 27 hours (while the wind went from 70 mph to over 170 mph) as it moved over the same part of the Caribbean back in late October 2005. Fortunately, we are not dealing with a situation as dire.

Satellite appearance and near-term intensity

Rina’s tempered rate of intensification may reflect the vast extent of the surrounding exceptionally dry air (shaded in orange in the image below) as discussed yesterday.

The satellite presentation of the storm itself looks healthy for now, with thunderstorm clouds widely distributed across the vortex, and the cirrus-cloud outflow nearly unrestricted in the northeast quadrant.

In the image below, you can actually see a trail of clouds extending from Rina northeastward towards the middle part of the Atlantic. In some circumstances, a cloud pattern like this would actually favor the quick intensification of a tropical cyclone, owing to the apparent existence of an unobstructed outflow channel. But in this case, the dry air to the north may be too much to overcome.

Water vapor image of Rina, showing dry air to the north (NOAA)

It’s hard to imagine that, with such dry air in close proximity to Rina’s core, that it will not put at least some kind of brake on further development. In fact, it may even be doing that now, as close-up satellite images show a not-so symmetric, somewhat ragged appearance.

Close-up water vapor image of Rina from Tuesday morning (NOAA)

Nevertheless, some modest stregthening is possible and the National Hurricane Center predicts it will become a major category 3 hurricane in the next day.

Impacts over the Yucatan

As long as Rina remains in this part of Caribbean atmosphere, it will remain a significant concern to nearby land masses.

Fortunately, the radius of hurricane force winds is only 15 miles (for now). With the center of this extremely compact storm expected to approach the Yucatan coast Thursday morning at hurricane strength, destructive wind gusts would surely accompany an eyewall passage, but probably not extend outward much beyond that, especially if the center of Rina parallels the coast on a northward track. Rainfall amounts in a much larger swath could reach 8 to as much as 16 inches due to the storm’s slow forward motion. Flooding may well be Rina’s most significant impact.

Long-term track: Florida in play?

A substantial northward movement into the Gulf of Mexico appears unlikely. Most models agree that Rina will not make it north of 25N.

Rina track forecasts ( National Center for Atmospheric Research )

Many of them still turn the cyclone around and move it back to the south beyond the 5-day forecast period shown above. The probability of a Florida hit is still low, but not out of the question, with some recent model runs suggesting a more northeastward course. We will watch that closely for you in the coming days.

In the unlikely event Rina were to get pulled northward toward the United States, the odds are that it would be coupled with a midlatitude weather system strong enough to seriously damage its tropical characteristics and irreversibly weaken the circulation.

Washington Post

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
RINA...AND WILL PROVIDE DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE
SHORTLY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD

Current Track of Hurricane Rina and Satellite photos

By Diane Campbell

Mid-day on Ambergris Caye - all prep for Rina is done ..... time for a photo-op or two.

 

 

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

...RINA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...

----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 84.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

Hurricane Rina closes in on Mexican beach resorts

CANCUN, Mexico | Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:50pm EDT
(Reuters) - Hurricane Rina closed in on Mexico's Yucatan peninsula on Tuesday, threatening beach resorts like Cancun with heavy rain and dangerous waves but steering clear of oil installations in the Gulf of Mexico.

The hurricane largely avoided the coffee and sugar producing nations of Central America, which are still recovering from weeks of heavy rains that destroyed roads to farms and ruined some crops.

Rina, now a Category Two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale packing winds of 105 mph, is expected to strengthen even further to become a major hurricane.

Authorities in the city of Cancun were preparing 50 shelters ahead of the storm, which is expected to make landfall on Thursday morning.

Some worried residents cleared out store shelves of emergency supplies like water and canned tuna in case businesses decide to shut down.

The storm could slam into other tourist hubs like Playa del Carmen and the island of Cozumel, popular with scuba divers and cruise ships on the Yucatan Peninsula, and will also graze the small Central American nation of Belize.

Belize issued a tropical storm watch along its coastline north of Belize City.

Authorities also issued a hurricane watch for the east coast of the peninsula from north of Punta Gruesa to Cancun, and a storm warning from Chetumal to Punta Gruesa.

Rina, the sixth hurricane in the Atlantic this year, was located 280 miles east southeast of Chetumal, Mexico on Tuesday afternoon.

"Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours," the Miami-based hurricane center said. "And Rina is expected to become a major hurricane by tonight."

Major hurricanes are Category 3 or higher. They reach that level when sustained winds hit 111 miles per hour.

The hurricane could dump 8 to 16 inches of rain over the eastern Yucatan peninsula from Wednesday morning, "making outside preparations difficult or dangerous," the center said.

A huge storm surge is also possible, raising the tide level as much as 7 feet above normal levels along the coast.