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Hurricane Rina a strong category 2
Jeff Masters

9:16 PM GMT on October 25, 2011

Hurricane Rina is now a strong category 2, and is slowly moving west-northwest toward Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Rina is packing winds of 110 mph and is crawling west at a 3 mph. Cancun radar shows some showers approaching the peninsula. Since this morning, satellite imagery has shown Rina becoming slightly more organized, and outflow has increased on all sides of the hurricane. Rina's eye appeared this afternoon, as well, though clouds continue to obscure it most of the time. Recent satellite images suggest thunderstorm activity is increasing around the eye (Figure 1). At 2pm EDT, wind shear was low (5-10 knots) near the cyclone, which is likely aiding it to intensify, but shear expected to increase over the next couple of days. This afternoon's Hurricane Hunter mission reported maximum surface winds of 108 mph north of the eye using the SMFR surface wind instrument, an observation that was not flagged for poor data quality. If the current satellite imagery and organization of the hurricane is indicative, Rina will probably reach major hurricane status tonight or early tomorrow. Another Hurricane Hunter mission is on the way to Rina this evening, and a NOAA-9 Gulfstream is also currently investigating the hurricane and sending back dropsonde information, which will be valuable for model forecasts.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Rina taken around 12:45pm EDT on October 25. Image source: NOAA.

Forecast for Hurricane Rina
The forecast for Rina hasn't changed much since this morning. Some intensification is expected over the next 12 hours, though its slow speed could act to decrease sea surface temperatures around the hurricane, and thus decrease the amount of fuel available for further intensification. This afternoon's computer model runs continue to be somewhat divided on the likely track for the hurricane, although they seem to be coming into agreement that Rina will struggle to maintain its intensity after the land interaction with the Yucatan, as well as the high shear it will encounter in the coming days. The GFS continues to forecast that Rina will remain intact after a brief brush with the Yucatan before turning northeast and heading toward southern Florida. The HWRF model is also predicting a similar outcome. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is sticking to its forecast that Rina will lose organization once it reaches the Peninsula, and instead providing a heavy rain event for Florida in conjunction with the trough of low pressure that is expected to move through later this week.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is for Rina to continue to move to the west-northwest over the next 12 hours before turning to the north toward the tip of the Yucatan. This initial forecast is in agreement with the GFS and HWRF tracks, though beyond Thursday, the Center is forecasting Rina to decrease in intensity and make a hard right turn toward the Florida Straits. Regardless, people in Belize and especially the Yucatan Peninsula should be prepared for major hurricane conditions, including a storm surge up to 7 feet above normal tide conditions, and rainfall up to 16 inches.

Rina Threatening Cancun and Cozumel
Accuweather

Oct 25, 2011 5:10 PM

Hurricane Rina to Impact Cancun, Cozumel

Hurricane Rina is a Category 2 Hurricane located at 17.4° N, 84.3° W with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, gusting to 130 mph

Hurricane Rina is expected to continue to increase in size and strength prior to nearing Cancun and Cozumel, Mexico, later this week.

Rina continues to gradually strengthen over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. It is still a category 2 hurricane, but its 110 mph winds are just below category 3 strength. Upper level winds will remain favorable for the next day or two as the storm slowly tracks toward the Yucatan Peninsula, so further strengthening remains likely and Rina will likely be a category 3 storm when it is in the vicinity of Cancun and Cozumel on Thursday.

The forecast for Rina's track and strength becomes much more challenging after Thursday. The eventual path that the hurricane will take depends on several different variables. The first factor to consider is how much strength that Rina will lose while interacting with land near the Yucatan Peninsula. Should Rina maintain most of its strength through Thursday night, it will likely be steered more by upper level west-southwesterly winds that will be found over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. This would increase the threat to Florida. A weaker storm would be more likely to wander closer to Cuba through Friday. Another factor that impacts the forecast will be the strength of those upper level southwesterly winds. These winds may cause shear that would weaken Rina if they are strong enough. Again, the more strength that Rina can hold on to, the farther north Rina will track. Another item to consider will be the strength of an upper level trough and associated surface front that will cross the Gulf of Mexico and southeastern states later this week. The stronger this trough is later this week, the farther north Rina will track. Considering all these variables, AccuWeather believes that Rina will end up far enough north to have some impact on the weather in the Florida Keys and possibly a part of South Florida Friday or Saturday.

Residents of and those with interests in southern Florida, The Bahamas and Cuba should all closely monitor the progress of Rina over the coming days. In Quintana Roo, Mexico, storm preparations should be well under way. Those in Belize and on the islands of Honduras should be prepared for tropical storm conditions as the outer bands of Rina will affect those areas.

There is another area to watch for a new development over the next few days. A tropical wave is crossing the eastern Caribbean with the wave axis along 68 west south of 17 north, slowly edging westward. There is a large but spotty and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms with this wave over the central and eastern part of the Caribbean. Upper level winds in this area are marginally favorable for development, though there is some northerly shear along the wave axis south of Puerto Rico. Waters are very warm over the Caribbean Sea ahead of this wave. The odds of further development over the next day or so are long, but there is a decent chance that this develops further toward the end of the week.

One other tropical wave over the open Atlantic along 40 west south of 20 north is causing some showers and thunderstorms, but upper level winds in this area are hostile to further development. It is very slowly crawling westward. Should this wave end up in the Caribbean Sea in several days, conditions could be more favorable there.

US warns nationals in Mexico over Hurricane Rina

WASHINGTON - The United States urged its nationals on Tuesday to consider leaving Mexico as Hurricane Rina bore down on tourist resorts on the Yucatan peninsula like Cancun, Cozumel and Playa del Carmen.

"The storm is expected to strengthen further before it makes landfall, most likely early on Thursday, October 27 somewhere between Cancun and Tulum in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo," the State Department travel warning said.

Already packing 110-mile (175-kilometer) per hour winds, Rina was forecast to become a major category three storm by early Wednesday before crashing into the Mexican coast near the sprawling resort city of Cancun on Thursday.

A hurricane watch was already in effect from Cabo Grueso north to Cancun, including the tourist areas of Tulum, Cozumel, Playa del Carmen, Puerto Morelos and Cancun.

Here is as up to date info as there is, courtesy of the last HH flight:

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 23:13Z
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 22:48Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°26'N 84°28'W (17.4333N 84.4667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 245 miles (395 km) to the E (91°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,830m (9,285ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 6 nautical miles (7 statute miles) to the NNW (348°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 61° at 103kts (From the ENE at ~ 118.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNW (342°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 966mb (28.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,030m (9,941ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,036m (9,961ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 103kts (~ 118.5mph) in the northwest quadrant at 22:39Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 100kts (~ 115.1mph) in the southeast quadrant at 22:45Z

That is cause for concern.

from a friend....

A look at the weather satellite shows Hurricane Rina stalled on the same longitude, but proceeding toward Honduras and the Cape and Bay Islands area. Swan Island is taking a licking.

Moving due west at this time

HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA MEANDERING WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
TONIGHT...

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH ... 6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
THE COAST OF YUCATAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING RINA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

Navy track and Satellite photo

NEMO Public Press Release #4 - Hurricane RINA

At 3:00pm the center of Hurricane Rina was located near 17.4 N, Latitude and 84.3 W, Longitude or about 258 miles east of Belize. Hurricane Rina is heading west northwest at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. TS force winds extends out to 140 miles and Hurricane Force Winds extend out 30 miles from the centre. 2-4 inches of rainfall is anticipated. Rina is expected to become to major Hurricane within the next 24 hours.

NEMO will suspend evacuation operations from the Caye's with effect of 5:00 p.m today. The last set of evacuation boats will leave from San Pedro and Caye Caulker at 5:00 pm today.

NEMO remains on full alert as it continues to monitor Hurricane Rina which has the potential to further strengthen. NEMO urges the public to pay keen attention, listen to your local radio and television for further advisories from NEMO and the National Met Service. Rina is likely to become a powerful Hurricane. Stay alert! Stay tune! Take the necessary actions!

OFFICIALS MONITOR PATH OF HURRICANE RINA

All eyes are on Hurricane Rina. The system went from a Tropical Disturbance to a Hurricane in less than twenty four hours. And forecasters believe that the season's sixth hurricane is destined to be a major storm perhaps as strong as a category three hurricane. A short while ago we spoke with National Emergency Coordinator Noreen Fairweather for the latest update on the Hurricane watch on Hurricane Rina.

Noreen Fairweather - NEMO National Coordinator
"The NEMO National Executive met this afternoon and subsequent to that we issued this pubic advisory in terms of the status of where we are with Hurricane Rina. At three o'clock NEMO declared phase two red one which is a Hurricane watch from Belize City north to the Belize Mexican border. Water taxi operations will be suspended tomorrow due to the possible evacuation of San Pedro and Caye Caulker and the public is advised to take note that this will be affecting their travel plans to and from the islands. School will be closed for San Pedro and Caye Caulker tomorrow; the UB Gym will be used as a shelter for the people that are being evacuated from San Pedro and UB Scarlet Macaw building will be used as a shelter for the Caye Caulker people that are evacuating, these are the designated shelters as published in our national shelter list for evacuations. The operations coming out of the Cayes, in San Pedro the NEMO Coordinator will be overseeing those operations and out of Caye Caulker the Belize Coast Guard will be overseeing the operations out of Caye Caulker. As a result of all these movements, in the North part of the county, bus runs in the north will be impacted by some of the runs that are running in that area so folks using the public transportation in those areas need to be cognizant of that and their movements will be interrupted in terms of the scheduling and so on. We are asking the public to please take note that the evacuation of the islands will be affecting their travel plans, I know that people need to get to and from work and will be reporting to work tomorrow. NEMO would like to advise the general public to remain on full alert as we continue to monitor Hurricane Rina. We also want to make another announcement as relates to public officers, the Ministry of Public Service has issued a release and they are requesting that public officers who have been assigned shelter management duties in the Belmopan area to report to the Shoman Resource Management representative and that is at the City of Belmopan emergency operating center and that is located at City Hall on Trinity Boulevard and they are being asked to report at six a.m. tomorrow morning so that's the shelter managers for the Belmopan area are being asked to report to the City of Belmopan EOC at six a.m. where they will be assigned their specific duties at that location. All other public officers are asked to keep abreast of the NEMO advisories and to remain on standby in the event that shelters are required to be opened in other parts of the country. More than likely some of that will be happening on Wednesday as we seek to evacuate the coastal communities running from Belize City area that has the advisory to the north those communities such as Sarteneja, Chunox, Shipstern, Bomba, Santa Ana and that entire area in the northern of the country so we are asking public officers to be alert. Persons have been issued their advisories as to what areas they would be assigned duties so once that announcement comes out they are asked to report to the nearest human resource management representative at the EOC that has been designated for them in that particular city or town. Public officers are also reminded that if they need to take shelter in a district, town or city they should report to the EOC in that area so if you live in area where you yourself will be sheltering, you report to the EOC in that area. The Ministry of Public Service is asking that we share those reminders with officers at this time. Generally we ask the public to remain on full alert and listen to the official advisories that will be issued by NEMO and the national Met Service."

LOVEFM