AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Hurricane Ernesto

Ernesto weakens; Florence forms
Jeff Masters

4:12 PM GMT on August 04, 2012

Enigmatic Tropical Storm Ernesto continues westward across the Caribbean, but has weakened. Ernesto certainly looks impressive on visible satellite loops, with a symmetric shape, good spiral banding, and an upper-level outflow channel to the north and east. But this morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had weakened, with top winds of just 50 mph, and a central pressure that had risen to 1008 mb. The storm is fighting low to moderate wind shear of 5 - 15 knots, and water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west. Upper level winds from the west are driving this dry air into the west side of the storm. Ernesto's rains are staying just north of the ABC Islands, as seen on Aruba radar. The southern shore of the Dominican Republic is experiencing occasional heavy rains from Ernesto's spiral bands.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto continues to be a major challenge to forecast. Despite the seemingly favorable conditions for intensification expected today through Tuesday, with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, many of our top computer models refuse to predict intensification, and in fact, weaken the storm. Of the major dynamical models NHC uses operationally--the ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDL, and HWRF--only the NOGAPS and GFDL show Ernesto reaching hurricane strength in the Caribbean. The ECMWF dissipates the storm. However, some of the best statistical models, such as the LGEM and SHIPS, do show Ernesto becoming a Category 1 or 2 hurricane in the Caribbean. The official NHC intensity forecast of a Category 1 hurricane between Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is a reasonable compromise, but the uncertainty in this is high. It would not be a surprise to see Ernesto mysteriously degrade, or undergo rapid intensification into a Category 2 hurricane off the coast of the Yucatan. Such is the state of modern hurricane intensity forecasting. Given that we don't have a very good idea of how strong Ernesto will become, making an accurate track forecast is hard. A stronger Ernesto will be more likely to feel the influence of a trough of low pressure moving to the north of the storm on Tuesday, which would pull the storm to the northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. This would likely result in a landfall in the U.S. A weaker Ernesto is more likely to head almost due west, resulting in a landfall Wednesday in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. This is the more likely solution, given the recent behavior of the storm.

Click here for the full Daily Tropical Weather Report

Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of Ernesto taken at 8 am EDT, with echoes from a microwave satellite instrument in the 85 GHz band superimposed. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

yep, weakening, and the track's slid somewhat southwards, as Jeff predicted.

The latest run of Hurrevac (below) indicates a more southerly tract of TS Ernesto, which will bring the TC over northern Belize early on Wednesday. The heavy downpours will start from early Tuesday. The storm will likely slow down and strenthen as it enters the NW Caribbean. Conditions will be favorable for flash floods.

Follow the link below for High Res satellite images of Ernesto (375 m) for this morning. The convection is intense E and NE of the center.
http://go.wisc.edu/qzooq5

Ramon Frutos

USA National Weather Service Forecast

11:00 am EDT on August 5, 2012

...Poorly-organized Ernesto moving rapidly westward...

at 1100 am EDT...1500 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 15.0 north...longitude 77.1 west. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 23 mph...37 km/h...and this motion is expected to continue today and tonight with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by late Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track...the center of Ernesto is expected to pass south of Jamaica today and move north of the northeastern coast of Honduras late Monday and Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible as Ernesto moves over the western Caribbean Sea.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...205 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.

Click here for the full Daily Tropical Weather Report

From: Diane Campbell

Hot, sunny, beautiful.

Predictions are for Ernesto to arrive in Belize City (30 miles south of here)
in the wee hours of the morning on Wednesday. We anticipate rains to start
early on Tuesday and for mainland flooding to be the major threat.

Due to the rapid rate of travel of this storm we're planning to do a bit of
prep Monday just in case - pulling a little boat and tucking away some
furniture isn't much work and better safe than sorry.

As of now, most resorts on the island are planning on business as usual.

3pm Navy Track

Tropical Storm Ernesto is currently predicted to arrive around Belize City late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, with winds between 65 and 75 mph. Track has dropped south a bit...

Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting.

Click here for the full Tropical Weather Report, updated several times a day during storms...

WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR BELIZE
Valid: Monday, March 5-12, 2012

Here is the Weekly Outlook and an update of TS Ernesto ploughing westwards at 20 mph with max sustained winds of 50 mph at 3:00 pm this afternoon.

Expect torrential rainfall and TS force winds with this system on Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

RFrutos

The feature of interest this week will be the approach and landfall of tropical cyclone Ernesto along the northern coast of Belize on Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning as a minimal hurricane. The GFS model cyclonic vorticity projection has the center of Ernesto moving across the central coast of Belize early on Wednesday. Although Ernesto is entraining dry air as it moves into the western Caribbean this evening, environmental conditions will still be favorable for the system to strengthen to hurricane intensity before making landfall over the northern or central coast of Belize. A strong windshear zone is evident in the extreme NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico, while a persistent high pressure ridge to the north of the western Caribbean will keep Ernesto on a westerly to west-northwesterly track, propelling the system towards the southern Yucatan-Belize coast. Regardless of where, along the coast of Belize, Ernesto makes landfall, tropical storm force winds will affect most areas of Belize, with hurricane force winds in a narrow zone near the center. Torrential rainfall will spread across the country by Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, with highest concentration projected over the north and central areas of the country. The instability will persist through Thursday until Saturday. So expect much rainfall this week, with a high potential of strong winds near where Ernesto makes landfall, and flooding in flood prone areas, including the Belize city area and surroundings!

Daily rainfall accumulations will range from 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall rates will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday continuing through Thursday. Expect the highest rainfall amounts on Tuesday night through Thursday morning, with rates of 2-3 inches per day. Locally higher daily rates of 4-5 inches are expected in the elevated areas of the Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo Districts. The northern sector of the mainland including the Belize District will also see high rainfall accumulations on Tuesday through Thursday, with totals of 2-3 inches per day. The rapid runoff will provoke localized flash floods in valley and hilly areas. Residence in flood prone zones should be prepared to move to safer areas!

CLICK HERE for the full Belize Weekly Weather Report

...REALLY worth paying attention to Ernesto over the next 24 hours folks.

Latest NHC update (11:00 pm) notes that the storm has slowed down (14 mph), pressure has dropped (1003 mb) and it's slowly getting its act together. The one thing boding well for us at this point is that it is not vertically aligned so to speak, though the NHC expects Ernesto WILL become vertically aligned in about 24 hours. That could give it a last minute spurt of intensification right before landfall. Right now they're calling for a weak Cat 1 at landfall. Let's hope it stays that way.

Current Tropical Weather report //ambergriscaye.com/forum/ubbthreads.php/topics/392196/Today_s_Tropical_Weather_Outlo.html#Post392196 :

Here is the Hrrevac update track of TS Ernesto and the latest satellite image. Ernesto has slowed down to 14 mph but still heading west. This means that the storm can strengthen to hurricane intensity, as is forecast, and the punishing winds and torrential rainfall will last a longer time when it makes landfall over the central or northern coast of Belize on Wednesday morning. BE PREPARED.

RFrutos

update from 1pm NEMO meeting in San Pedro. No alcohol sales at all. Curfew at 10pm. Shelters open from 2pm to 6pm if you want to move. 1200 poeple have evacuated by plane and boat. Take down all scaffolding IMMEDIATELY from all construction. Currently at 18.5 Latitude (here in town we are at about 17.5 Lat).

The weather forecast for San Pedro: Significant increase in wind at 8pm here in San Pedro and intermittent rain throughout the day.