AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Hurricane Lisa

Rain already well into Belize now : The storm looks as if it is now going up closer to Belize City. The leading rain has moved in rather faster that expected earlier, it is patchy rain though. Still no wind in Belmopan, but the low level clouds are now from the NW, that is being sucked into the south side of the storm.

We can now see the circulating clouds over Belize. Patchy rain moving well inland now.

Minister Andre Perez Area Representative for Belize Rural South and San Pedro Mayor Wally Nunez visiting various areas on the island before Hurricane Lisa. Stay Safe!

...LISA VERY NEAR BELIZE BARRIER REEF... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BELIZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

Hurricane Lisa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Lisa has become better organized on satellite images this morning, with strong convection near the center. Flight-level, SFMR-observed surface wind and Doppler velocity observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 70 kt. This is a small hurricane, with the inner-core hurricane-force wind area only about 20 n mi across.

The hurricane is likely to make landfall within 12 hours, so it has a small window for additional intensification before the center crosses the coastline. The official forecast shows a 75-kt intensity for the inland point at 12 hours, but it is expected that Lisa will be stronger than that intensity at landfall. The cyclone will rapidly weaken after moving inland and passing over Guatemala and eastern Mexico. Although the center is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche in about 48 hours, strong southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough near Texas is expect to cause the system to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by day 5, or sooner.

Lisa continues moving westward or around 275/12 kt. Over the next few days, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest and north around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. In 3-5 days, the weak and shallow cyclone is expected to meander slowly over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the near-surface flow. The official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus guidance and is similar to the previous NHC track.

Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and the southeastern Yucatan peninsula by this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, northern Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lisa was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.7 West. Lisa is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will make landfall in Belize later this afternoon, and then cross northern Guatemala and move into southeastern Mexico by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is still possible before landfall. Rapid weakening will occur after the center of Lisa moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

ADVISORY NO. 5 HURRICANE LISA

12:30 PM, WEDNESDAY, 2nd NOVEMBER 2022

The National Meteorological Service of Belize (NMS) and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the public that at 12 midday (local time) Hurricane Lisa was located near latitude 17.3N, longitude 87.7W or about 35 miles East-Southeast of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and minimum central pressure of 987 mb.

Lisa will continue on a general westward track today and make landfall on Belize in a few hours. Lisa is expected to maintain its current intensity or strengthen just a bit more before it makes landfall on the coast of Belize between Dangriga and Belize City (near the Northern Lagoon) later this afternoon. Residents across the country are reminded to be prepared as a hurricane warning is out for the entire coast of Belize.

Heavy rainfall from this system has already started to affect the country and that will continue for the remainder of today through to Thursday with amounts of 4-6 inches and locally higher values of up to 8-12 inches. This will result in flooding across low-lying and flood-prone areas of the country and flash flooding especially over the south. Winds of upper category 1 hurricane strength of 80-90 mph with a storm surge of 4-7 feet to the north of where the center makes landfall. Strong gusty winds will result in very rough sea conditions with large battering waves.

A state of emergency will be declared for the Belize and Stann Creek districts from 3:00 p.m. today until the "All Clear" is given. A curfew will go into effect from dusk today until dawn on Thursday, 3rd November, 2022. Only emergency and security agencies are allowed to be on the roads and streets during this period.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.

In accordance with the Disaster Preparedness and Response Act to safeguard persons, employers are strongly urged to release non-essential staff so that they may make preparations to secure themselves, their families and property prior to the arrival of the storm. Employers must allow their staff adequate time to make final preparations.

A hurricane warning (Red II) has been declared for the entire coast of Belize. A flash flood warning is in effect for the Moho and Temash rivers.

• Shelters are available countrywide including Belize City. (Attached is the list of the first set of shelters). Public Officers are to standby to report for your emergency management duties. Kudos those already working hard.

• The public is advised that borders will close at 2:00 p.m. today. Airports, water taxis and public bus transportation have ceased operations. Movement on the highways today is to be kept to a minimum, essential services need the space to preposition assets and supplies.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936 (NEMO Offices countrywide contact information is attached, to be read to the public). Stay alert, be prepared. Get ready tomorrow to weather the storm in a safe place. Don't panic, just be prepared!

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The storm centre continues to move in, it appears to have slowed down, so not yet close to land. But there are many bands of rain right now, mainly central and north Belize.

It now looks as it it might make landfall very close to Belize City, still probably over a hour away. Presently, the heaviest rain areas are to the north of the storm centre.

There is no surface wind near Belmopan, but the low level clouds are coming down from the North, which indicates that the storm centre is to the east of us. It looks as if it has slowed down and changing course now more northerly. More directly towards Belize City. Still looks like an hour from getting to Belize City. Several bands of Rain going into Belize City. I noticed my electrical power blip a couple of times. Even the hurricane people think it is changing course.

Crown Weather

Lisa is about to make landfall on the coast of Belize according to radar imagery. This small hurricane has about 80-85 mph winds and is expected to bring tropical storm to hurricane conditions to Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon through tonight as it pushes inland. In fact, the eye and eyewall of Lisa will very likely move right over Belize City late this afternoon and this evening bringing hurricane conditions to the city.

Weakening is expected as Lisa moves into Guatemala and southern Mexico on Thursday before it temporarily moves into the Bay of Campeche from Friday into this weekend. Strong wind shear from a very robust upper level trough of low pressure over the southern Plains will lead to Lisa to not strengthen at all in the Bay of Campeche and eventually it'll sink into southern Mexico where it'll dissipate by about Monday.

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State of Emergency to be Declared for Belize and Stann Creek Districts

A state of emergency will be declared from 3:00 p.m. today until the "All Clear" for Belize and Stann Creek districts. A curfew will go into effect from dusk on Wednesday, 2nd November to dawn on Thursday, 3rd November 2022. Only emergency and security agencies are allowed to be on the roads and streets during this period.

We are getting quite a few power dips. . . .
I don't know why, but my guess due to the hurricane winds on some Belize power cables, probably near Belize City.

I see the dry, perhaps clear sky storm centre is now very close to Belize City, with a lot of rain outside the centre.

I show the storm centre movement direction in a red arrow and the Rain movement direction with a blue arrow.

There is still very little surface wind near Belmopan, but I have shown the low level clouds moving from the NNW over Belmopan.

The clouds and wind movement on the 2nd picture in white arrows is just a guess as to what I expect is happening.

Mouth of the river park, Ambergis Caye



Live coverage on LOVE FM NEWS



Video of Belize City



Phone numbers for District Emergency Operations Centers



East side of Caye Caulker





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Hurricane Lisa just making landfall over Belize City.