Well, it is now 32 hours before the storm is expected and it doesn't look good:
"The initial motion is 280/17. There is no major change to the forecast thinking...although model guidance has been trending southward...with nearly all of the large-scale models building the subtropical ridge westward in tandem with Dean. The upper low in the Gulf of Mexico continues westward and is not expected to be a major player in the future track of the hurricane. The official forecast has been shifted a little to the south...but still lies to the north of all the major models except for the hwrf. Although I cannot explain why...the deterministic run of the GFS is along the southern end of the guidance envelope...while the GFS ensemble members are almost uniformly along the northern edge. Because most of the guidance models lie to the south of the official forecast...some additional southward adjustments to the track are possible."
Taken from this site:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200704.disc.html#a_topadWe will close down tomorrow, and the last guests will have left Portofino by 8:00 am (18 hours before the storm).
Jan van Noord
Portofino Restaurant and Resort 
AmbergrisCaye.com 
