Accuweather 5pm

We continue to watch a low pressure center in the southwest Caribbean Sea. It is located just off the east coast of Nicaragua and is only slowly drifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms have become less organized over the last 12 hours despite upper-level shear being light enough for further organization. A strong area of high pressure located to the north of this feature will likely steer it into Central America on Sunday, limiting any chance for development this weekend.

An upper-level trough of low pressure will sink to the southeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, then across Florida on Monday. We think this will steer the tropical low on a more northward track toward the northwest Caribbean Sea early next week. The waters of the northwest Caribbean have a deep warm layer which is favorable for organization and intensification. If the shear remains light aloft over the northwest Caribbean, and this system gets over these deep warm waters, we could see a tropical storm develop at the least. However, one limiting factor will be a lot of dry air perched over the Gulf of Mexico that could get drawn into the circulation and slow the process down. Later next week, a strong upper-level trough associated with a cold front will deepen across Texas toward the Gulf of Mexico and we feel this will help to steer the tropical cyclone to the north and east. Florida, Cuba or the Bahamas could wind up in the path of this system later next week.