AmbergrisCaye.com Home Forums Talk Belize Weather Tropical Storms & Hurricanes Hurricane Rina

This is not exactly a post mortem, as she is still quite alive and kicking but here is what gave me such a sense of relief about AC's fate earlier today...

When I posted this earlier



I was referring to the "gap" or inclusion that reflects the recent, and significant, drop in wind speeds along the south storm wall as seen in the graphic below. The data for the graph was developed from dropsonde data collected during hurricane hunter flights over the past two days.





In earlier discussions two NHC meterologists had brought up the possibilty that the 'cane would not recognise its full potential. Their predictiuon, which seems to have been realised, was that the storm's developement could be disrupted as a result of it coming into contact with "shearing" winds from a strong upper level high pressure system (ridge). That ridge had been had been dominating the Yucatan region for a week or more (remember those really consistent north winds all week?). Although the ridge was beginning to break up its upper level wind components could have an effect on Rina. Apprently those dry, warm, high speed winds aloft did indeed cut the tops off of and collapse Rina's high cold clouds on her southern flank. With that area of her upper level "thermal engine" crippled the wind speeds in the southern area of the storm became much slower than the other edges of the storm.

In order for the storm to really shift gears into a higher category those winds need to be in sync and working together. This wind speed differential precluded the 'cane from really spinning up its gyro even though it had plenty of fuel in the form of really warm water. Basically Rina pulled a hamstring just as she was hitting her stride.

Frankly I'm pretty damned impressed with the two meteorolgists who pulled all the information together and recognised this scenario as a distinct possibilty. Not to mention a big shout out to the Hurricane Hunters...