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ChrisW #292739 08/11/08 12:59 PM
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The ECB as well as the BOE are helping to prop up the dollar.

Ernie B #292800 08/12/08 05:17 AM
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I'm really learning here. Thanks.

Danny2 #292805 08/12/08 07:27 AM
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I would disagree that it findamentally changes nothing. If the Fed's action results in a perception that the dollar has bottomed-out and changing course, the subsequent result is very real.

Ernie is right! (did I say that?) With the EU decisioning on core interest rates and declining crude costs -- we've continued to see a strengthening dollar since the Fed's move.


I will have a Belikin -- put it on klcman's tab.
Otteralum #292808 08/12/08 07:43 AM
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Yeah, you said that Otter ! I printed it out and stuck it on the fridge.

Otteralum #292846 08/12/08 11:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Otteralum
I would disagree that it findamentally changes nothing. If the Fed's action results in a perception that the dollar has bottomed-out and changing course, the subsequent result is very real.

Ernie is right! (did I say that?) With the EU decisioning on core interest rates and declining crude costs -- we've continued to see a strengthening dollar since the Fed's move.


Technically that would be a technical move in the dollar not a fundamental one. smile Yes an up move is an up move and in the end the money made or lost is all that counts, but when I think of dollar fundamentals I am thinking about the health of the balance sheet of the US (income versus outgo and the associated debt) and interest rates versus inflation.

Short term technicals (basically the human behavioral factor) bounce things around good. Long term fundamentals always win.

With careful timing and some coordination, manipulation can do a good job of influencing the technicals and flipping the switch that convinces people that now is a good time to buy, but it does not change the fundamentals and eventually the fundamentals will push back. IMHO

Last edited by ChrisW; 08/12/08 11:15 AM.
ChrisW #292848 08/12/08 11:18 AM
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Well put, Chris.

Ernie B #292849 08/12/08 11:30 AM
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I think you may be on the wrong message board Chris?

You seem both reasonable an intelligent.


It's rarely rocket science, it's usually just math: then again if you can't do the math.......
pugwash #292850 08/12/08 12:03 PM
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Yeah! Who let him in??

Okay, help me to understand an example of a "fundamental" move in the dollar. Serious question.



I will have a Belikin -- put it on klcman's tab.
pugwash #292851 08/12/08 12:08 PM
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In recent weeks ...

Oil is down 20%
Corn is down 33%
Rice is down 25-35%
Copper is down 15%
Gold is down near 20%
Platinum is down 30%

Has the commodities bubble burst? Well, seems like more than a minor technical correction, but what do I know.

--Lan Sluder



Lan Sluder/Belize First
http://www.belizefirst.com
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This may not be THE answer but its one. Historically commodities (gold) bottoms out for the year in August and again in October. This creates buying opportunities. It also ticks up after all the shorts cut and run. OK, now beat me up.

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