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Sunday update on Invest 95L. Track solid. Chances up to 80%. Lisa brewing.



Crown Weather:
Invest 95-L Continues To Have The Chance To Develop This Coming Week As It Heads From The Central Caribbean Sea To The Western Caribbean Sea

A broad low pressure system (Invest 95-L) located over the Central Caribbean Sea seems to have become a little more organized today. Satellite imagery indicates that there has been a little more of a congealing of thunderstorm activity near the low pressure center, which seems to be located near 15 North Latitude, 72 West Longitude.

Analysis reveals that the low pressure system still seems to be elongated in the lower levels of the atmosphere, but seems to be more organized in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Based on this, I think that slow development this coming week still seems possible, but it looks quite possible that Invest 95-L will be at least a tropical storm by the time it reaches the area around Belize and northern Honduras by about Thursday.

All of the most recent model guidance is trending stronger in terms of how much Invest 95-L strengthens this week with both the GFS and Canadian model guidance now forecasting an upper end tropical storm to make landfall in Belize later this coming week. It should be noted that both models forecast that a majority of the strengthening may occur once Invest 95-L moves west of 80 West Longitude on about Tuesday or so.

The track forecast of Invest 95-L looks pretty straightforward as an area of high pressure over the eastern United States this week will steer this system westward leading it to come ashore in Belize on about Thursday.

Invest 95-L is likely to produce heavy rainfall and squally weather to parts of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and much of the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of days. This squally weather is then expected to affect Jamaica beginning on Monday and continuing through Tuesday and Wednesday. Very squally weather with tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Honduras and across Belize on Wednesday and Thursday.

Current radar in the Caribbean.





For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.


Tropical Storm Forming: Jamaica, Belize, Honduras on Alert
A tropical storm is forming and Jamaica, Belize, and Honduras are on alert. Heavy rain could move into Jamaica, with this system passing just to the south. Next, it could develop into a tropical storm or hurricane as it gets closer to Mexico, Belize, and Honduras by mid-week.

JAMAICA: Monitor the flood threat.
BELIZE & HONDURAS: Take initial preparations to be safe in case this becomes a tropical storm or hurricane.

NOAA appears to have dropped the chance of this weather developing into a storm from 70% to 60%. But it has now been classified as potential storm 15, and some suggest it could develop into a Cat.1 when it gets to Belize late Wednesday through Thursday. So we must keep watching and take precautions.

At 3:00 am Monday morning, Oct. 31, Potential Tropical Cyclone #15 was located near latitude 15.8N, longitude 76.1W, or about 160 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and 767 miles East by South of Half Moon Caye Belize. This system was moving to the west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island.

The NMs continues to closely monitor the progress of the system and will continue to update the public regularly.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, located over the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Fifteen is centered near 15.8N 76.1W at 31/0900 UTC, or 140 nm SSE of Kingston, Jamaica moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident within 120 nm N semicircle, 210 nm SW quadrant and 310 nm SW quadrant. ASCAT satellite scatterometer data from Sunday night reveal the strongest E to SE winds are occurring north and east of the center. PTC Fifteen is expected to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm later today. It will continue on a general westward track with little change in forward speed for the next several days.







NEMO ADVISORY NO. 1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15

The National Meteorological Service of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the public that as at 4:00 p.m. (local time) Sunday, Tropical Cyclone #15 (TC 15) was located over the Central Caribbean Sea near latitude 15.7N, longitude 73.6W or about 974 miles south of due east from Belize. TC 15 was moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and minimum central pressure of 1005 mb.

The forecast is for TC 15 to continue on a west-northwestward track for the next 24 to 48 hours and then to move on a more westerly track starting on Tuesday night. On this forecasted path, the system will move south of Jamaica on Monday, south of Cayman on Tuesday and then approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday with landfall possible on Belize late on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Strengthening is likely and TC 15 is likely to be a hurricane by landfall on the country. It is likely a Hurricane Watch will be issued tomorrow for the entire country of Belize.

It is too early to say exactly how strong it will be or where exactly on Belize landfall will occur. Regardless, significant development of this system will bring heavy rainfall to the country starting on Wednesday and continuing through to Thursday. Daily rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts likely. Therefore, residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the National Meteorological Service. Today, countrywide, all NEMO district emergency committees are meeting. San Pedro held their first meeting yesterday.

NEMO advises the public to:

1. Review your family/emergency plan, emergency food, water and medical supplies. Check on the elderly and persons with disabilities.

2. Make early preparations to leave high risks areas; low-lying areas and vulnerable coastal communities. Know which shelter you will go to.

3. Secure your home and your important documents. Secure loose objects and flammable material. Clear drains to reduce flooding.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936. Stay alert, be prepared. Stay tuned for the National Met Service weather bulletins and the NEMO advisories.

[b]NEMO Activates Emergency Operation Centers [/b

The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) issued a notice to all emergency coordinators this morning to activate all Emergency Operation Centers, in preparation for an incoming weather system.

The United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a report earlier today, stating that an area of low pressure moving across the Caribbean Sea which is bound for Belize, has an up to 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next five days.

NEMO asked that all members of Community Emergency Response Teams and volunteer members of community emergency response groups get in touch with their village chairperson as soon as possible to assist with preparations.

The organization also urged Belizeans to discuss their family evacuation plans and businesses to go over their emergency response plans with their staff.

All members of the national emergency response infrastructure have been asked to remain vigilant as full evacuations may be necessary by Wednesday, 2nd November, 2022.




Potential Cyclone 15 - Watches Posted for Jamaica!
Potential Cyclone 15 is now in the Central Caribbean, and Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for Jamaica and parts of the Cayman Islands. This is forecasted to be a hurricane when it reaches Belize and Northern Honduras.

BELIZE & Northern HONDURAS: Make hurricane preparations.

MoECST Issues School Schedule and Urges Preparation for Tropical Cyclone No. 15

Taking into consideration Advisory No. 1 issued by the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) and the impending arrival of Tropical Cyclone No. 15, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Science and Technology informs the general public that class sessions will proceed as normal for tomorrow, Monday, October 31, 2022. Class sessions for all schools, however, are to be suspended from Tuesday, November 1, 2022, until further notice.

Schools, especially schools that serve as hurricane shelters, are asked to ensure that hurricane plans are put into effect and all property and equipment are safely secured.

The Ministry also encourages our education community to heed all advisories from NEMO and to make every effort to secure their property and personal well-being.

Tropical Storm Lisa has formed…

At 9:00 am, Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 15.5N, longitude 77.3W, or about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica and 693 east of Half Moon Caye Belize. This system was moving to the west at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island and watches/warnings will go into effect for Belize later today.

The NMS and NEMO continue to closely monitor the progress of the system and will continue to update the public regularly.

Activate your emergency family plan now.

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...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near 165 miles (265 km) of Kingston, Jamaica. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today through tomorrow and approach Central America on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and the system could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and in the next 5 days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft dropsonde data is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

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...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LISA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was about 175 miles (285 km) South of Kinston, Jamaica. Lisa is moving toward the west near 14 mph, and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica today, south of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, and approach Central America on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Lisa could become a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft dropsonde data is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)

The current forecast brings Lisa up to a Category 1 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Belize Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

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MESSAGE FROM PRIME MINISTER OF BELIZE IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM LISA APPROACHING BELIZE

"My dear Belizean people - Our region's hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th each year. While we pray and hope for the best, that no storm will come to our shores, we remain prepared and vigilant. Today, we find ourselves in that mode of preparedness and vigilance. We are on a storm watch! Warning will be issued today.

All our agencies are in readiness mode. We ask each of you and your families to join us in this readiness mode. Activate your family plans and ensure you have plans to secure yourselves and ready your properties and possessions for any eventuality.

We know our flood proned areas. We are mindful that much of our coastal and low lying areas are vulnerable. Our areas near our rivers and streams are likely to experience rising waters in heavy rainfall. The recent rains and floods have given us a recent indicator for areas of concern. I urge you to take heed. Be prepared. Be ready to move and secure lives in any eventuality. To our farmers and producers, please be vigilant and be ready to act. Move livestock early and attend your farms and produce appropriately.

Let's not panic but be ready to move in any eventuality. Take heed of your nearest shelter and follow only official advice from NEMO and our Meteorology Department.

We will weather the storm and save lives if we take heed and move early as is necessary."

Official notice from Ministry of Education. Classes remain normal for today and suspended on Tuesday until further notice.

Looks as if TROPICAL STORM LISA is spinning up fast.

The centre of rotation is in near clear weather, with small ITCZ cells behind it ( out of this picture ) and a large active cell to the south of it.. . . . Normally a cyclonic storm needs active swellups above it, to suck up sea water to energise it. This storm centre, at present, does not have that moisture and heavy cloud above it. So it is not a typical tropical storm development at present. So not clear how it will develop, but it could suck that heavy rain and high cloud area to its south, into it later.

The hurricane people show it as possible impacting the Belize coast line anywhere between Corozal and PG
So everyone on or near the coast should prepare for a small, possibly high winds of up to 100 mph, which can cause significant sea flooding of low land in for a mile or so inland.

Hurricane plane finds more strength to tropical storm Lisa. It recorded 75 km/h winds with a minimum central pressure of 1002 hpa.





NEMO Press Conference on Tropical Storm Lisa.




New Tropical Storm Forms and Will Get Stronger
A new tropical storm formed in the Caribbean, and it will get stronger as it heads to land. The heaviest weather stays south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. However, hurricane conditions are becoming more likely for Belize and Northern Honduras.

Crown Weather:
Tropical Storm Lisa Forms In The Central Caribbean Sea & Is Expected To Make Landfall In Belize On Wednesday Night

Satellite imagery indicates that the low-level circulation with the system over the central Caribbean Sea has closed off. In addition, some deeper thunderstorm activity has developed with this system as well. Because of this, it has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lisa by the National Hurricane Center.

Lisa is expected to head westward underneath a ridge of high pressure located to the north of the storm. This track will lead Lisa to move inland into Belize by Wednesday night. As for intensity, it appears that Lisa will encounter a gradually more favorable environment for strengthening as it heads westward into the western Caribbean Sea. That said, the air mass across the western Caribbean Sea remains very dry and because of this, the storm is likely to sputter at times. All-in-all, it appears that Lisa will slowly strengthen over the next couple of days and it's possible that it may not even reach hurricane strength by the time it makes landfall Wednesday night. My thinking is that it'll probably be a moderately strong tropical storm with perhaps 50-60 mph winds when it comes ashore in Belize on Wednesday night.

Lisa will produce squally weather across the island of Jamaica the rest of today and continue through Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northern coast of Honduras and across Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Wednesday night and into Thursday.



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Advisory #1: Tropical Storm Lisa

The National Meteorological Service of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the public that at 10:00 a.m. (local time), Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 15.5N, longitude 77.3W or about 735 miles East by South of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Lisa is to continue on a general west to west-north-westward track for the next few days. On this forecast path, the system will move south of Jamaica today, north of the northern coast of Honduras on Tuesday, and then approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday with landfall possible on Belize late on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Strengthening is expected and Lisa is expected to be a category 1 hurricane by landfall on the country.

This system will bring heavy rainfall to the country starting on Wednesday and continuing through Thursday which will result in flooding across low-lying and flood-prone areas of the country as the ground is already saturated. Daily rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are likely. Winds of category 1 hurricane strength of 74-95 mph are expected near the landfall location with a storm surge of 3-5 feet to the north of where the centre makes landfall.

NEMO advises the public to:

1. Put your family/emergency plan into action, check your emergency food, water and medical supplies. Check on the elderly and persons with disabilities.

2. Make early preparations to leave high-risk areas; voluntarily relocate to a safe location before the system makes landfall if you live in a low-lying area or vulnerable coastal community. Know which shelter you will go to.

3. Secure your home and your important documents. Secure loose objects and flammable material. 4. Municipalities and the public are advised to clear drains to reduce flooding.

Tropical systems can cause large tree branches to break and be uprooted. Damage to power lines will result in power outages that could last a few to several days, which may affect the water supply. Sewage system failure is likely. Falling debris could strike people, livestock, and pets. Protected windows will generally make it through a hurricane without major damage. Low-lying escape routes inland will be cut off by rising water 3 to 5 hours before landfall, and a flat terrain 5 feet or less above sea level can be flooded up to 8 or more miles inland.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the National Meteorological Service. Countrywide, all NEMO district emergency operations centers are to be activated by 6:00 p.m.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936 (NEMO)

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Don't wait until Wednesday to secure your vessel. Move all boats to the west side. Operators please think early and protect your investment. Boats should be secure by Tuesday afternoon.

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Belize Issues Hurricane Watch Declaration

Effective midday, today, 31st October 2022, the Prime Minister of Belize, in his capacity as the Chairman of the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO). hereby declares a hurricane watch (RED - 1) for the entire coast of Belize. This means that a tropical cyclone threatens the country of Belize and it is likely to make landfall within 36 to 48 hours. One red flag with a black center is to be flown at all signal centers throughout the country.

The public is advised to put their individual emergency disaster plans into effect, including preparations to voluntarily relocate to safe shelter if necessary. Public and private essential agencies, utility companies and non-essential agencies must immediately implement plans of action, including closure of schools, securing of work-stations, the release of workers and the securing of ports of entry. All businesses should implement their disaster plans. NEMO must be prepared to open adequate shelters wherever necessary and to conduct Search and Rescue operations where lives are at risk.

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San Pedro Town Shelter List 2022



A Hurricane Watch (Red 1) has been declared for the entire coast of Belize.

The public is advised to put their individual emergency disaster plan into effect, including preparations to voluntarily relocate to safe shelter if necessary.

The San Pedro Town Council will be closed today Oct 31 at 4pm until an all clear is declared.

All businesses are advised to properly secure all signs.

The Sanitation Department advises all homeowners to secure garage bins.

The Building Unit advises all construction sites to bring down any scaffolding to clean up the sites off loose material, equipment and debris.

Stay Safe and follow all advisories from NEMO.



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Tropical Storm Lisa Could Be A Category 1 Hurricane at Landfall in Belize

Tonight, Tropical Storm Lisa is chugging through the Eastern Caribbean Sea - and she has her sights set on Belize.

That's why all of Belize is under a RED - 1 Hurricane Watch tonight - meaning that Lisa is expected to make landfall somewhere along the coast of Belize within 36 to 48 hours.

At 6:00 pm, TS Lisa was centered about 630 miles east Southeast of Belize City, moving west at 14 miles an hour, with maximum winds of 45 miles per hour.

So, what should you do now? And what do you need to get ready for? Here's most of what you need to know about Lisa tonight - from a NEMO virtual press conference this morning:



Second Phase flag is up in San Pedro.



Do you know the Hurricane Flag Signals? Here's a quick lesson courtesy of the Ministry of Education.

ADVISORY NO. 2 TROPICAL STORM LISA

7:00 PM, MONDAY, 31st OCTOBER 2022

The National Meteorological Service of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the public that as at 6:30 pm Belize is under a hurricane watch. Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 15.5N, longitude 78.9W or about 630 miles East-Southeast of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and minimum central pressure of 1002 mb. Lisa is to continue on a general west to west-north-westward track for the next few days. On this forecasted track, the centre will pass south of Jamaica tonight, south of the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, then move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early on Wednesday, and approach Belize later on Wednesday. Strengthening is expected and Lisa is expected to be a category 1 hurricane by landfall on Wednesday evening.

This system will bring heavy rainfall with amounts of 3-5 inches and locally higher values of up to 8 inches starting on Wednesday and continuing through Thursday, which will result in flooding across low-lying and flood-prone areas of the country. Winds of category 1 hurricane strength at 74-95 mph are expected near the landfall location with a storm surge of 3-5 feet to the north of where the centre makes landfall. Wind effect is likely to be felt throughout most areas of the country. Make plans to secure your radio mast and antenna. Preposition valuable assets away from vulnerable areas. Farmers take note.

NEMO advises the public to:

1. Put your family/emergency plan into action, check your emergency food, water and medical supplies. Check on the elderly and persons with disabilities.

2. Make early preparations to leave high-risk areas; voluntarily relocate to a safe location before the system makes landfall if you live in a low-lying area or vulnerable coastal community. Know which shelter you will go to.

3. Secure your home and your important documents. Secure loose objects and flammable material.

4. Municipalities and the public are advised to clear drains to reduce flooding.

BWS advises the public to store water. Maritime ports around the country are scheduled for closure on Wednesday. Shelters will be opened as needed from Tuesday evening. Schools will be closed on November 1, 2022, as the country prepares for the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Lisa.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the Met Service. Countrywide, all NEMO district emergency operations centers are activated.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936 (NEMO Offices countrywide contact information is attached, to be read to the public). Stay alert, be prepared. Stay tune for the National Met Service weather bulletins and the NEMO advisories.

Updated National Shelter List (October 2022)


Click images for larger versions

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Minister Perez, Mayor Nunez and San Pedro NEMO EOC briefing in regards to Troprical Storm Lisa.



A briefing from Minister Andre Perez Area Representative for Belize Rural South, San Pedro Mayor Wally Nunez and Ms. Vanessa Parham Belize Rural South NEMO coordinator regarding Tropical Storm Lisa.



At 12:00 am, Tropical Storm Lisa was centered near latitude 15.8N, longitude 79.9W or about 570 miles East of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and minimum central pressure of 1004 mb.