Sunday update on Invest 95L. Track solid. Chances up to 80%. Lisa brewing.

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Crown Weather:
Invest 95-L Continues To Have The Chance To Develop This Coming Week As It Heads From The Central Caribbean Sea To The Western Caribbean Sea

A broad low pressure system (Invest 95-L) located over the Central Caribbean Sea seems to have become a little more organized today. Satellite imagery indicates that there has been a little more of a congealing of thunderstorm activity near the low pressure center, which seems to be located near 15 North Latitude, 72 West Longitude.

Analysis reveals that the low pressure system still seems to be elongated in the lower levels of the atmosphere, but seems to be more organized in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Based on this, I think that slow development this coming week still seems possible, but it looks quite possible that Invest 95-L will be at least a tropical storm by the time it reaches the area around Belize and northern Honduras by about Thursday.

All of the most recent model guidance is trending stronger in terms of how much Invest 95-L strengthens this week with both the GFS and Canadian model guidance now forecasting an upper end tropical storm to make landfall in Belize later this coming week. It should be noted that both models forecast that a majority of the strengthening may occur once Invest 95-L moves west of 80 West Longitude on about Tuesday or so.

The track forecast of Invest 95-L looks pretty straightforward as an area of high pressure over the eastern United States this week will steer this system westward leading it to come ashore in Belize on about Thursday.

Invest 95-L is likely to produce heavy rainfall and squally weather to parts of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and much of the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of days. This squally weather is then expected to affect Jamaica beginning on Monday and continuing through Tuesday and Wednesday. Very squally weather with tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Honduras and across Belize on Wednesday and Thursday.

Current radar in the Caribbean.

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For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.


Tropical Storm Forming: Jamaica, Belize, Honduras on Alert
A tropical storm is forming and Jamaica, Belize, and Honduras are on alert. Heavy rain could move into Jamaica, with this system passing just to the south. Next, it could develop into a tropical storm or hurricane as it gets closer to Mexico, Belize, and Honduras by mid-week.

JAMAICA: Monitor the flood threat.
BELIZE & HONDURAS: Take initial preparations to be safe in case this becomes a tropical storm or hurricane.