At 3:00 am Monday morning, Oct. 31, Potential Tropical Cyclone #15 was located near latitude 15.8N, longitude 76.1W, or about 160 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and 767 miles East by South of Half Moon Caye Belize. This system was moving to the west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island.

The NMs continues to closely monitor the progress of the system and will continue to update the public regularly.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, located over the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Fifteen is centered near 15.8N 76.1W at 31/0900 UTC, or 140 nm SSE of Kingston, Jamaica moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident within 120 nm N semicircle, 210 nm SW quadrant and 310 nm SW quadrant. ASCAT satellite scatterometer data from Sunday night reveal the strongest E to SE winds are occurring north and east of the center. PTC Fifteen is expected to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm later today. It will continue on a general westward track with little change in forward speed for the next several days.

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NEMO ADVISORY NO. 1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15

The National Meteorological Service of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the public that as at 4:00 p.m. (local time) Sunday, Tropical Cyclone #15 (TC 15) was located over the Central Caribbean Sea near latitude 15.7N, longitude 73.6W or about 974 miles south of due east from Belize. TC 15 was moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and minimum central pressure of 1005 mb.

The forecast is for TC 15 to continue on a west-northwestward track for the next 24 to 48 hours and then to move on a more westerly track starting on Tuesday night. On this forecasted path, the system will move south of Jamaica on Monday, south of Cayman on Tuesday and then approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday with landfall possible on Belize late on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Strengthening is likely and TC 15 is likely to be a hurricane by landfall on the country. It is likely a Hurricane Watch will be issued tomorrow for the entire country of Belize.

It is too early to say exactly how strong it will be or where exactly on Belize landfall will occur. Regardless, significant development of this system will bring heavy rainfall to the country starting on Wednesday and continuing through to Thursday. Daily rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts likely. Therefore, residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the National Meteorological Service. Today, countrywide, all NEMO district emergency committees are meeting. San Pedro held their first meeting yesterday.

NEMO advises the public to:

1. Review your family/emergency plan, emergency food, water and medical supplies. Check on the elderly and persons with disabilities.

2. Make early preparations to leave high risks areas; low-lying areas and vulnerable coastal communities. Know which shelter you will go to.

3. Secure your home and your important documents. Secure loose objects and flammable material. Clear drains to reduce flooding.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936. Stay alert, be prepared. Stay tuned for the National Met Service weather bulletins and the NEMO advisories.

[b]NEMO Activates Emergency Operation Centers [/b

The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) issued a notice to all emergency coordinators this morning to activate all Emergency Operation Centers, in preparation for an incoming weather system.

The United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a report earlier today, stating that an area of low pressure moving across the Caribbean Sea which is bound for Belize, has an up to 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next five days.

NEMO asked that all members of Community Emergency Response Teams and volunteer members of community emergency response groups get in touch with their village chairperson as soon as possible to assist with preparations.

The organization also urged Belizeans to discuss their family evacuation plans and businesses to go over their emergency response plans with their staff.

All members of the national emergency response infrastructure have been asked to remain vigilant as full evacuations may be necessary by Wednesday, 2nd November, 2022.

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Potential Cyclone 15 - Watches Posted for Jamaica!
Potential Cyclone 15 is now in the Central Caribbean, and Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for Jamaica and parts of the Cayman Islands. This is forecasted to be a hurricane when it reaches Belize and Northern Honduras.

BELIZE & Northern HONDURAS: Make hurricane preparations.