Current Navy Track:

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Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center
500 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Deep convection associated with Lisa has continued to expand overnight, and there has also been some increase in banding noted in infrared satellite imagery. However, data from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft suggest that this has not yet resulted in an increase in intensity. The plane found flight-level and SFMR winds to support an initial intensity of 40 kt, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the cyclone this morning.

Lisa appears poised to strengthen given the recent increase in organization and expected favorable environmental conditions. The storm will be traversing SSTs of around 29 degrees Celsius and remain within an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening, and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours when it is near the Bay Islands of Honduras. The NHC wind speed forecast follows the ICON and HFIP corrected consensus aids, which is between the higher regional hurricane models and the lower statistical aids. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter.

The tropical storm is moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The updated track forecast is slightly north of the previous track at 12 and 24 hours, but is very similar to the earlier official forecast thereafter.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

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