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Current Navy Track:



Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center
500 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Deep convection associated with Lisa has continued to expand overnight, and there has also been some increase in banding noted in infrared satellite imagery. However, data from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft suggest that this has not yet resulted in an increase in intensity. The plane found flight-level and SFMR winds to support an initial intensity of 40 kt, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the cyclone this morning.

Lisa appears poised to strengthen given the recent increase in organization and expected favorable environmental conditions. The storm will be traversing SSTs of around 29 degrees Celsius and remain within an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening, and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours when it is near the Bay Islands of Honduras. The NHC wind speed forecast follows the ICON and HFIP corrected consensus aids, which is between the higher regional hurricane models and the lower statistical aids. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter.

The tropical storm is moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The updated track forecast is slightly north of the previous track at 12 and 24 hours, but is very similar to the earlier official forecast thereafter.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.



For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

...LISA POISED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM...

At 6am (local time) Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 16.1N, longitude 81.1W or about 480 miles East of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and minimum central pressure of 1004 mb.

A hurricane watch is currently in effect and will be updated later today.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.
NEMO hotline: 936

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At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was about 220 miles (355 km) South of Grand Cayman. Lisa is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will pass south of the Cayman Islands today, move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday, and approach Belize later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane by early Wednesday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

This TROPICAL STORM LISA has swelled up considerably over night, and now has a lot of high cloud around it. Despite the cloud build up, the maximum winds have only increased from about 40 mph to 45 mph over the last couple of days. But they still think it will make landfall any where between south of Corozal and PG area.

At 9 am (local time) Tropical Storm Lisa has strengthened was located near latitude 16.3N, longitude 81.8W or about 430 miles East of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and minimum central pressure of 1001 mb.

A hurricane watch is currently in effect and will be updated later today.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.





...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR STRENGTHENING LISA...

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has provided critical data with Lisa this morning, showing that the storm has started to intensify. Flight-level winds have increased to 55 kt, with SFMR winds of 50-55 kt, and surface-reduced dropsonde data of about 50 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of these data, above the latest satellite classifications.

Further intensification is likely with Lisa now having a small radius-of-maximum winds in light vertical wind shear, along with the deep warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean providing ample fuel. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in less than a day when it is near the Bay Islands of Honduras, and Lisa should intensify as it approaches Belize. For now, rapid intensification is not forecast, but since the percentage chances of this occurrence from SHIPS are increasing, this possibility must be mentioned and the new forecast is higher than the bulk of the guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter.

Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Navy Track:

The amount of high cloud has reduced, but spread out over a larger area, in fact some of its advance cloud, has mixed up with what was coming down from the NW to make heavy cloud over much of north Belize now, and a little rain. They say its central high rotating wind has speeded up now to 60 mph from the earlier 40 mph. . . But still no clear landing location on Belize coast, still could be anywhere between Corozal and PG, but more likely closer to Belize City.





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Belize Hotel Association Severe Weather Advisory

Tropical Storm Lisa

Tuesday, November 1, 2022

Tropical Storm Lisa, presently located 16.3 N 81.8 W, is currently predicted to make landfall in Belize at hurricane strength late Wednesday evening. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Belize and if you have not already done so, we urge you to initiate your hotel/resort's emergency preparedness protocol. This includes fortifying your properties as best you can, releasing unnecessary staff from their duties and communicating with your guests, both in-country as well as those scheduled to arrive this week.

Here's the airline information that we've been advised of: American Airlines, Delta and United all maintained their flight schedules for today however the PGIA will be closed later today and our domestic carriers, Maya Island Air and Tropic Air have discontinued flights as they make preparations to move their fleets northward. This means there will be no international flights tomorrow, Wednesday, November 2, 2022. At this juncture, any in-house guest who did not depart today, Tuesday, November 1, will not be able to do so; at least not through the Philip Goldson International Airport. We are advised that our international airline partners are waiving change fees with certain conditions however it is advisable for each guest to contact their airline directly for the specifics.

Our Association's office will be closed at 12:00 Noon, today, November 1, 2022 and will reopen as soon as possible after the "All Clear" has been given. In the meantime, urgent communications can be conveyed to us via WhatsApp at +501.632.0398. We urge everyone to pay keen attention to releases from the National Meteorological Service and the National Emergency Management Organization. Prepare yourselves, your guests and your employees as best as possible and heed all warnings and calls for evacuation, if any.



Planned Water Interruption from 6:00pm on Wednesday, November 2, 2022, to 6:00AM on Thursday, November 3, 2022, to the following areas:
- Caye Caulker
- San Pedro
- Dangriga
- Placencia
- Punta Gorda

Hurricane Warning Issued for the entire coast of Belize...TS Lisa shifts slightly north.

At 3:00 pm, Tropical Storm Lisa was centered near latitude 16.7N, longitude 83.3W, or about 220 miles East of Roatan Honduras, and about 327 miles almost due East of Dangriga Town ,Belize. Lisa was moving to the West at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.
NEMO hotline: 936

...LISA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Satellite images indicate that Lisa continues to become better organized with a central dense overcast feature forming along with more curved banding features. Dvorak estimates have increased as well, and the current wind speed is set to 55 kt, closest to the TAFB fix and near an average of the available values. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft, an Air Force C-130 and a NOAA P-3, should be investigating Lisa this evening to get more in situ data.

Conditions look ripe for continued intensification. Other than some lingering dry air, Lisa is moving over very warm waters, in low shear, and has a small radius-of-maximum winds and an expanding outflow pattern. These factors suggest a pretty notable chance of rapid intensification, and the SHIPS index shows basically a coin flip chance of a 25-kt wind speed increase within 24 hours. Additionally, the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON show Lisa becoming a category 2 hurricane before landfall. The new NHC forecast is similar to those models (note that further intensification is possible between the 24h forecast and Belize landfall) and a bit higher than the corrected-consensus guidance.

Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/13 kt. This westward track with some reduction in forward speed is anticipated due to the storm staying south of a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. While the synoptic pattern is about the same as before, a vertically deeper Lisa is more likely to feel upper-level southeasterly flow and will probably not lose any latitude near landfall. Thus, the latest forecast has been adjusted about 15-20 n mi north of the previous one with the model guidance nudging in that direction.

With the northward adjustment and a stronger cyclone in the forecast, more of the models are showing Lisa making it across Central America and Mexico as a weak tropical cyclone into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Although the new NHC forecast now indicates this likelihood, Lisa isn't expected to be a significant event there due to stronger shear, and re-intensification is not indicated in the official forecast.

Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting Wednesday afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through Thursday.

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Crown Weather:

Lisa Is Strengthening & Will Probably Be A Hurricane When It Makes Landfall In Belize On Wednesday Night

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft and satellite imagery indicates that Lisa is strengthening. Additional strengthening looks likely over the next 24 hours or so as Lisa heads westward. Based on the latest guidance, it seems fairly possible that Lisa will be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Belize on Wednesday night.

As I already mentioned, it looks very likely that Lisa will head between a west and west-northwest track leading to the storm to come ashore along the coast of Belize on Wednesday night.

Tropical storm to hurricane conditions are expected along the northern coast of Honduras tonight and Wednesday and then across Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday night and into Thursday.

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Little bump north. Stronger system still possible with the HWRF showing CAT 2.
Latest NHC track update on soon to be Hurricane Lisa.

NEMO ADVISORY NO. 3 TROPICAL STORM LISA

8:00 PM, TUESDAY, 1st NOVEMBER 2022

The National Meteorological Service of Belize (NMS) and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the general public that at 7:00 p.m. (local time) Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 16.7N, longitude 84.0W or about 285 miles east of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and minimum central pressure of 996 mb. Lisa will continue on a general westward track with some decrease in forward speed during the next few days. On this forecast track, the centre will move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early on Wednesday and approach Belize later on Wednesday. Strengthening is expected and Lisa is expected to be a strong category 1 or minimal category 2 hurricane by landfall on Belize late on Wednesday evening. A hurricane warning is out for the entire coast of Belize.

This system will bring heavy rainfall with amounts of 4-6 inches and locally higher values of up to 8-12 inches starting on Wednesday and continuing through Thursday, which will result in flooding across low-lying and flood prone areas of the country and flash flooding especially over the south. Winds of upper category 1 hurricane strength of 90-95 mph or category 2 strength of 96 -110 mph are expected near the landfall location with a storm surge of 4-7 feet to the north of where the centre makes landfall. Strong gusty winds will result in very rough sea conditions with large battering waves.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.

• In accordance with the Disaster Preparedness and Response Act to safeguard persons, employers are strongly urged to release non-essential staff so that they may make preparations to secure themselves, their families and property prior to the arrival of the storm. Employers must allow their staff adequate time to make final preparations.

A hurricane warning (Red II) has been declared for the entire coast of Belize. A flash flood warning is in effect for the Moho and Temash rivers.

• Shelters are available countrywide including Belize City. (Attached is the list of the first set of shelters). Public Officers are to standby to report for your emergency management duties. Kudos those already working hard.

• The public is advised that water taxis have ceased operations today and airports closed at 8:00 p.m. tonight. Public bus transportation will cease operations on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m.Seaports will also close on Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. Movement on the highways tomorrow is to be kept to a minimum, essential services need the space to preposition assets and supplies. NEMO continues to advise the public to put your family/emergency plan into action, check your emergency food and medical supplies, store water, and check on the elderly and persons with disabilities.

Secure your homes and your important documents. Secure loose objects and flammable material. Municipalities and the public are advised to clear drains to reduce flooding.

Make early preparations to leave high risks areas; voluntarily relocate to a safe location before the system makes landfall if you live in a low-lying area or a vulnerable coastal community. Know which shelter you will go to. It is impressive to see people moving to safety out of harm's way today, boarding up their homes and doing their emergency shopping. Way to go Belize! Be prepared, mek wi save wi life. Thanks to media for the awesome public service coverage. Help us curb misinformation, it can affect people's lives.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS. Stay tuned for the National Met Service weather bulletins and the NEMO advisories.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936 (NEMO Offices countrywide contact information is attached, to be read to the public). Stay alert, be prepared. Get ready tomorrow to weather the storm in a safe place. Don't panic, just be prepared as displayed today by many in the news, you are true NEMO emergency examples!

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Kindly note information from the National Transport & Evacuation Committee.

WEDNESDAY 7am
ONLY the following shelters will be open as of 7am in San Pedro and Caye Caulker:
Sagebrush church (located south of the bridge)
Youth Center (located behind RC church in San Marcos.
Caye Caulker - RC School
If you are going to a shelter you must bring food and water with you. Bring all important documents (passports, birth papers). ONLY bring the items with you that you will use in the shelter.
NO Pets are permitted in the shelters.
NO alcohol, weapons or cigarettes are permitted inside the shelter.
Respect others and follow ALL instructions given by authorized shelter wardens.
Please follow our page for additional shelter openings.

Navy Track:



Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF BELIZE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

A few hours ago, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt in the northeastern eyewall and estimated 55-60 kt surface winds from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. The minimum central pressure was near 992 mb. Since then, satellite imagery and radar data from Belize show little change in organization, and based on these observations the initial intensity remains 60 kt.

Lisa has 12-18 h before it makes landfall in Belize, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time. The forecast peak intensity of 75 kt is on the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken as it crosses Belize and northern Guatemala into southeastern Mexico. The center should emerge over the Bay of Campeche before the 60 h point. However, strong upper-level winds should cause enough shear to keep the cyclone from re-intensifying, and Lisa is still forecast to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h.

The initial motion remains 280/13 kt. A ridge to the north will continue to steer Lisa westward at a slightly reduced forward speed through landfall. The storm is the expected to follow the flow around a low- to mid-level ridge into the Bay of Campeche in 48-60 h. After that time, the increasingly shallow cyclone should turn southward in the low-level flow. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than the previous track as the guidance is in good agreement on a faster motion through 72 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras this morning and along the coast of Belize and southeastern Yucatan by this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the southeastern portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.

...LISA BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE HEADED FOR BELIZE...

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lisa was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 86.7 West. Lisa is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras this morning, make landfall in Belize later today, and then cross northern Guatemala and move into southeastern Mexico by Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast as Lisa approaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center makes landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

More maps as Lisa approaches...

Advisory 4 Hurricane Lisa
No one is permitted on the streets after 10am. All persons should be home preparing for the Hurricane.

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ADVISORY NO. 4 HURRICANE LISA

7:30 AM, WEDNESDAY, 2" NOVEMBER 2022

The National Meteorological Service of Belize (NMS) and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the public that at 6:00 a.m. (local time) Hurricane Lisa was located near latitude 17.2N, longitude 86.7W or about 100 miles east-southeast of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and minimum central pressure of 988 mb.

Lisa will continue on a general westward track today and make landfall on Belize later this afternoon. Strengthening is expected and Lisa is expected to be a strong category 1 or minimal category 2 hurricane by landfall on Belize. Landfall is expected near Belize City but residents across the country are reminded to be prepared as a hurricane warning is out for the entire coast of Belize.

Heavy rainfall from this system has already started to affect the country and that will continue today through to Thursday with amounts of 4-6 inches and locally higher values of up to 8-12 inches. This will result in flooding across low-lying and flood prone areas of the country and flash flooding especially over the south. Winds of upper category 1 hurricane strength of 85-95 mph or category 2 strength of 96 -105 mph are expected near the landfall location with a storm surge of 4-7 feet to the north of where the center makes landfall. Strong gusty winds will result in very rough sea conditions with large battering waves.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information corning from NEMO and the NMS.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.

• In accordance with the Disaster Preparedness and Response Act to safeguard persons, employers are strongly urged to release non-essential staffs° that they may make preparations to secure themselves, their families and property prior to the arrival of the storm. Employers must allow their staff adequate time to make final preparations.

A hurricane warning (Red II) has been declared for the entire coast of Belize. A flash flood warning is in effect for the Moho and Temash rivers.

• Shelters are available countrywide including Belize City. (Attached is the list of the first set of shelters). Public Officers are to standby to report for your emergency management duties. Kudos those already working hard. • The public is advised that borders will close at 2:00 p.m. today. Water taxis have ceased operations and airports closed last night. Seaports closed this morning. Public bus transportation will cease operations today at 10:00 a.m. Movement on the highways today is to be kept to a minimum, essential services need the space to preposition assets and supplies.

NEMO continues to advise the public to put your family/emergency plan into action, check your emergency food and medical supplies, store water, and check on the elderly and persons with disabilities.

Secure your homes and your important documents. Secure loose objects and flammable material. Municipalities and the public are advised to clear drains to reduce flooding.

Make early preparations to leave high risks areas; voluntarily relocate to a safe location before the system makes landfall if you live in a low-lying area or a vulnerable coastal community. Know which shelter you will go to.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS. Stay tuned for the National Met Service weather bulletins and the NEMO advisories.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936 (NEMO Offices countrywide contact information is attached, to be read to the public). Stay alert, be prepared. Get ready tomorrow to weather the storm in a safe place. Don't panic, just be prepared!

We had a fair bit of rain overnight, in several relatively short periods of heavy rain, I measured a 62mm ( 2½" ) of rain by 7am
They have now classified it as HURRICANE LISA which is on our door step now. Its leading band caused a lot of overnight rain and its main rain part looks as if bringing more periods of heavy rain into central Belize coast line within a couple of hours.

I expect more rain between Dangriga up to Orange Walk later this morning. So looks as if its centre will be starting to cross the coast line about or just before mid-day, and be fully on land by about 2pm and reaching Belmopan and Cayo by late afternoon.

The surprising thing is that even by 8am this morning, there is no wind near Belmopan, with a Hurricane so close, you would normally be getting winds this far away from it. This storm is going to cause problems for Belize City.