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Sunday update on Invest 95L. Track solid. Chances up to 80%. Lisa brewing.



Crown Weather:
Invest 95-L Continues To Have The Chance To Develop This Coming Week As It Heads From The Central Caribbean Sea To The Western Caribbean Sea

A broad low pressure system (Invest 95-L) located over the Central Caribbean Sea seems to have become a little more organized today. Satellite imagery indicates that there has been a little more of a congealing of thunderstorm activity near the low pressure center, which seems to be located near 15 North Latitude, 72 West Longitude.

Analysis reveals that the low pressure system still seems to be elongated in the lower levels of the atmosphere, but seems to be more organized in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Based on this, I think that slow development this coming week still seems possible, but it looks quite possible that Invest 95-L will be at least a tropical storm by the time it reaches the area around Belize and northern Honduras by about Thursday.

All of the most recent model guidance is trending stronger in terms of how much Invest 95-L strengthens this week with both the GFS and Canadian model guidance now forecasting an upper end tropical storm to make landfall in Belize later this coming week. It should be noted that both models forecast that a majority of the strengthening may occur once Invest 95-L moves west of 80 West Longitude on about Tuesday or so.

The track forecast of Invest 95-L looks pretty straightforward as an area of high pressure over the eastern United States this week will steer this system westward leading it to come ashore in Belize on about Thursday.

Invest 95-L is likely to produce heavy rainfall and squally weather to parts of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and much of the Lesser Antilles over the next couple of days. This squally weather is then expected to affect Jamaica beginning on Monday and continuing through Tuesday and Wednesday. Very squally weather with tropical storm conditions are possible along the northern coast of Honduras and across Belize on Wednesday and Thursday.

Current radar in the Caribbean.





For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.


Tropical Storm Forming: Jamaica, Belize, Honduras on Alert
A tropical storm is forming and Jamaica, Belize, and Honduras are on alert. Heavy rain could move into Jamaica, with this system passing just to the south. Next, it could develop into a tropical storm or hurricane as it gets closer to Mexico, Belize, and Honduras by mid-week.

JAMAICA: Monitor the flood threat.
BELIZE & HONDURAS: Take initial preparations to be safe in case this becomes a tropical storm or hurricane.

NOAA appears to have dropped the chance of this weather developing into a storm from 70% to 60%. But it has now been classified as potential storm 15, and some suggest it could develop into a Cat.1 when it gets to Belize late Wednesday through Thursday. So we must keep watching and take precautions.

At 3:00 am Monday morning, Oct. 31, Potential Tropical Cyclone #15 was located near latitude 15.8N, longitude 76.1W, or about 160 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and 767 miles East by South of Half Moon Caye Belize. This system was moving to the west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island.

The NMs continues to closely monitor the progress of the system and will continue to update the public regularly.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, located over the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) Fifteen is centered near 15.8N 76.1W at 31/0900 UTC, or 140 nm SSE of Kingston, Jamaica moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident within 120 nm N semicircle, 210 nm SW quadrant and 310 nm SW quadrant. ASCAT satellite scatterometer data from Sunday night reveal the strongest E to SE winds are occurring north and east of the center. PTC Fifteen is expected to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm later today. It will continue on a general westward track with little change in forward speed for the next several days.







NEMO ADVISORY NO. 1 TROPICAL CYCLONE 15

The National Meteorological Service of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the public that as at 4:00 p.m. (local time) Sunday, Tropical Cyclone #15 (TC 15) was located over the Central Caribbean Sea near latitude 15.7N, longitude 73.6W or about 974 miles south of due east from Belize. TC 15 was moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and minimum central pressure of 1005 mb.

The forecast is for TC 15 to continue on a west-northwestward track for the next 24 to 48 hours and then to move on a more westerly track starting on Tuesday night. On this forecasted path, the system will move south of Jamaica on Monday, south of Cayman on Tuesday and then approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday with landfall possible on Belize late on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Strengthening is likely and TC 15 is likely to be a hurricane by landfall on the country. It is likely a Hurricane Watch will be issued tomorrow for the entire country of Belize.

It is too early to say exactly how strong it will be or where exactly on Belize landfall will occur. Regardless, significant development of this system will bring heavy rainfall to the country starting on Wednesday and continuing through to Thursday. Daily rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts likely. Therefore, residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the National Meteorological Service. Today, countrywide, all NEMO district emergency committees are meeting. San Pedro held their first meeting yesterday.

NEMO advises the public to:

1. Review your family/emergency plan, emergency food, water and medical supplies. Check on the elderly and persons with disabilities.

2. Make early preparations to leave high risks areas; low-lying areas and vulnerable coastal communities. Know which shelter you will go to.

3. Secure your home and your important documents. Secure loose objects and flammable material. Clear drains to reduce flooding.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936. Stay alert, be prepared. Stay tuned for the National Met Service weather bulletins and the NEMO advisories.

[b]NEMO Activates Emergency Operation Centers [/b

The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) issued a notice to all emergency coordinators this morning to activate all Emergency Operation Centers, in preparation for an incoming weather system.

The United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a report earlier today, stating that an area of low pressure moving across the Caribbean Sea which is bound for Belize, has an up to 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next five days.

NEMO asked that all members of Community Emergency Response Teams and volunteer members of community emergency response groups get in touch with their village chairperson as soon as possible to assist with preparations.

The organization also urged Belizeans to discuss their family evacuation plans and businesses to go over their emergency response plans with their staff.

All members of the national emergency response infrastructure have been asked to remain vigilant as full evacuations may be necessary by Wednesday, 2nd November, 2022.




Potential Cyclone 15 - Watches Posted for Jamaica!
Potential Cyclone 15 is now in the Central Caribbean, and Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for Jamaica and parts of the Cayman Islands. This is forecasted to be a hurricane when it reaches Belize and Northern Honduras.

BELIZE & Northern HONDURAS: Make hurricane preparations.

MoECST Issues School Schedule and Urges Preparation for Tropical Cyclone No. 15

Taking into consideration Advisory No. 1 issued by the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) and the impending arrival of Tropical Cyclone No. 15, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Science and Technology informs the general public that class sessions will proceed as normal for tomorrow, Monday, October 31, 2022. Class sessions for all schools, however, are to be suspended from Tuesday, November 1, 2022, until further notice.

Schools, especially schools that serve as hurricane shelters, are asked to ensure that hurricane plans are put into effect and all property and equipment are safely secured.

The Ministry also encourages our education community to heed all advisories from NEMO and to make every effort to secure their property and personal well-being.

Tropical Storm Lisa has formed…

At 9:00 am, Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 15.5N, longitude 77.3W, or about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica and 693 east of Half Moon Caye Belize. This system was moving to the west at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for Jamaica and Grand Cayman Island and watches/warnings will go into effect for Belize later today.

The NMS and NEMO continue to closely monitor the progress of the system and will continue to update the public regularly.

Activate your emergency family plan now.

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...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...

At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near 165 miles (265 km) of Kingston, Jamaica. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today through tomorrow and approach Central America on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and the system could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and in the next 5 days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft dropsonde data is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

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...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM LISA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was about 175 miles (285 km) South of Kinston, Jamaica. Lisa is moving toward the west near 14 mph, and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica today, south of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, and approach Central America on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Lisa could become a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft dropsonde data is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)

The current forecast brings Lisa up to a Category 1 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Belize Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

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MESSAGE FROM PRIME MINISTER OF BELIZE IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM LISA APPROACHING BELIZE

"My dear Belizean people - Our region's hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th each year. While we pray and hope for the best, that no storm will come to our shores, we remain prepared and vigilant. Today, we find ourselves in that mode of preparedness and vigilance. We are on a storm watch! Warning will be issued today.

All our agencies are in readiness mode. We ask each of you and your families to join us in this readiness mode. Activate your family plans and ensure you have plans to secure yourselves and ready your properties and possessions for any eventuality.

We know our flood proned areas. We are mindful that much of our coastal and low lying areas are vulnerable. Our areas near our rivers and streams are likely to experience rising waters in heavy rainfall. The recent rains and floods have given us a recent indicator for areas of concern. I urge you to take heed. Be prepared. Be ready to move and secure lives in any eventuality. To our farmers and producers, please be vigilant and be ready to act. Move livestock early and attend your farms and produce appropriately.

Let's not panic but be ready to move in any eventuality. Take heed of your nearest shelter and follow only official advice from NEMO and our Meteorology Department.

We will weather the storm and save lives if we take heed and move early as is necessary."

Official notice from Ministry of Education. Classes remain normal for today and suspended on Tuesday until further notice.

Looks as if TROPICAL STORM LISA is spinning up fast.

The centre of rotation is in near clear weather, with small ITCZ cells behind it ( out of this picture ) and a large active cell to the south of it.. . . . Normally a cyclonic storm needs active swellups above it, to suck up sea water to energise it. This storm centre, at present, does not have that moisture and heavy cloud above it. So it is not a typical tropical storm development at present. So not clear how it will develop, but it could suck that heavy rain and high cloud area to its south, into it later.

The hurricane people show it as possible impacting the Belize coast line anywhere between Corozal and PG
So everyone on or near the coast should prepare for a small, possibly high winds of up to 100 mph, which can cause significant sea flooding of low land in for a mile or so inland.

Hurricane plane finds more strength to tropical storm Lisa. It recorded 75 km/h winds with a minimum central pressure of 1002 hpa.





NEMO Press Conference on Tropical Storm Lisa.




New Tropical Storm Forms and Will Get Stronger
A new tropical storm formed in the Caribbean, and it will get stronger as it heads to land. The heaviest weather stays south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. However, hurricane conditions are becoming more likely for Belize and Northern Honduras.

Crown Weather:
Tropical Storm Lisa Forms In The Central Caribbean Sea & Is Expected To Make Landfall In Belize On Wednesday Night

Satellite imagery indicates that the low-level circulation with the system over the central Caribbean Sea has closed off. In addition, some deeper thunderstorm activity has developed with this system as well. Because of this, it has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Lisa by the National Hurricane Center.

Lisa is expected to head westward underneath a ridge of high pressure located to the north of the storm. This track will lead Lisa to move inland into Belize by Wednesday night. As for intensity, it appears that Lisa will encounter a gradually more favorable environment for strengthening as it heads westward into the western Caribbean Sea. That said, the air mass across the western Caribbean Sea remains very dry and because of this, the storm is likely to sputter at times. All-in-all, it appears that Lisa will slowly strengthen over the next couple of days and it's possible that it may not even reach hurricane strength by the time it makes landfall Wednesday night. My thinking is that it'll probably be a moderately strong tropical storm with perhaps 50-60 mph winds when it comes ashore in Belize on Wednesday night.

Lisa will produce squally weather across the island of Jamaica the rest of today and continue through Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northern coast of Honduras and across Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Wednesday and continuing through Wednesday night and into Thursday.



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Advisory #1: Tropical Storm Lisa

The National Meteorological Service of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the public that at 10:00 a.m. (local time), Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 15.5N, longitude 77.3W or about 735 miles East by South of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a minimum central pressure of 1003 mb. Lisa is to continue on a general west to west-north-westward track for the next few days. On this forecast path, the system will move south of Jamaica today, north of the northern coast of Honduras on Tuesday, and then approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday with landfall possible on Belize late on Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Strengthening is expected and Lisa is expected to be a category 1 hurricane by landfall on the country.

This system will bring heavy rainfall to the country starting on Wednesday and continuing through Thursday which will result in flooding across low-lying and flood-prone areas of the country as the ground is already saturated. Daily rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are likely. Winds of category 1 hurricane strength of 74-95 mph are expected near the landfall location with a storm surge of 3-5 feet to the north of where the centre makes landfall.

NEMO advises the public to:

1. Put your family/emergency plan into action, check your emergency food, water and medical supplies. Check on the elderly and persons with disabilities.

2. Make early preparations to leave high-risk areas; voluntarily relocate to a safe location before the system makes landfall if you live in a low-lying area or vulnerable coastal community. Know which shelter you will go to.

3. Secure your home and your important documents. Secure loose objects and flammable material. 4. Municipalities and the public are advised to clear drains to reduce flooding.

Tropical systems can cause large tree branches to break and be uprooted. Damage to power lines will result in power outages that could last a few to several days, which may affect the water supply. Sewage system failure is likely. Falling debris could strike people, livestock, and pets. Protected windows will generally make it through a hurricane without major damage. Low-lying escape routes inland will be cut off by rising water 3 to 5 hours before landfall, and a flat terrain 5 feet or less above sea level can be flooded up to 8 or more miles inland.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the National Meteorological Service. Countrywide, all NEMO district emergency operations centers are to be activated by 6:00 p.m.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936 (NEMO)

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Don't wait until Wednesday to secure your vessel. Move all boats to the west side. Operators please think early and protect your investment. Boats should be secure by Tuesday afternoon.

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Belize Issues Hurricane Watch Declaration

Effective midday, today, 31st October 2022, the Prime Minister of Belize, in his capacity as the Chairman of the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO). hereby declares a hurricane watch (RED - 1) for the entire coast of Belize. This means that a tropical cyclone threatens the country of Belize and it is likely to make landfall within 36 to 48 hours. One red flag with a black center is to be flown at all signal centers throughout the country.

The public is advised to put their individual emergency disaster plans into effect, including preparations to voluntarily relocate to safe shelter if necessary. Public and private essential agencies, utility companies and non-essential agencies must immediately implement plans of action, including closure of schools, securing of work-stations, the release of workers and the securing of ports of entry. All businesses should implement their disaster plans. NEMO must be prepared to open adequate shelters wherever necessary and to conduct Search and Rescue operations where lives are at risk.

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San Pedro Town Shelter List 2022



A Hurricane Watch (Red 1) has been declared for the entire coast of Belize.

The public is advised to put their individual emergency disaster plan into effect, including preparations to voluntarily relocate to safe shelter if necessary.

The San Pedro Town Council will be closed today Oct 31 at 4pm until an all clear is declared.

All businesses are advised to properly secure all signs.

The Sanitation Department advises all homeowners to secure garage bins.

The Building Unit advises all construction sites to bring down any scaffolding to clean up the sites off loose material, equipment and debris.

Stay Safe and follow all advisories from NEMO.



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Tropical Storm Lisa Could Be A Category 1 Hurricane at Landfall in Belize

Tonight, Tropical Storm Lisa is chugging through the Eastern Caribbean Sea - and she has her sights set on Belize.

That's why all of Belize is under a RED - 1 Hurricane Watch tonight - meaning that Lisa is expected to make landfall somewhere along the coast of Belize within 36 to 48 hours.

At 6:00 pm, TS Lisa was centered about 630 miles east Southeast of Belize City, moving west at 14 miles an hour, with maximum winds of 45 miles per hour.

So, what should you do now? And what do you need to get ready for? Here's most of what you need to know about Lisa tonight - from a NEMO virtual press conference this morning:



Second Phase flag is up in San Pedro.



Do you know the Hurricane Flag Signals? Here's a quick lesson courtesy of the Ministry of Education.

ADVISORY NO. 2 TROPICAL STORM LISA

7:00 PM, MONDAY, 31st OCTOBER 2022

The National Meteorological Service of Belize and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the public that as at 6:30 pm Belize is under a hurricane watch. Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 15.5N, longitude 78.9W or about 630 miles East-Southeast of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and minimum central pressure of 1002 mb. Lisa is to continue on a general west to west-north-westward track for the next few days. On this forecasted track, the centre will pass south of Jamaica tonight, south of the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, then move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early on Wednesday, and approach Belize later on Wednesday. Strengthening is expected and Lisa is expected to be a category 1 hurricane by landfall on Wednesday evening.

This system will bring heavy rainfall with amounts of 3-5 inches and locally higher values of up to 8 inches starting on Wednesday and continuing through Thursday, which will result in flooding across low-lying and flood-prone areas of the country. Winds of category 1 hurricane strength at 74-95 mph are expected near the landfall location with a storm surge of 3-5 feet to the north of where the centre makes landfall. Wind effect is likely to be felt throughout most areas of the country. Make plans to secure your radio mast and antenna. Preposition valuable assets away from vulnerable areas. Farmers take note.

NEMO advises the public to:

1. Put your family/emergency plan into action, check your emergency food, water and medical supplies. Check on the elderly and persons with disabilities.

2. Make early preparations to leave high-risk areas; voluntarily relocate to a safe location before the system makes landfall if you live in a low-lying area or vulnerable coastal community. Know which shelter you will go to.

3. Secure your home and your important documents. Secure loose objects and flammable material.

4. Municipalities and the public are advised to clear drains to reduce flooding.

BWS advises the public to store water. Maritime ports around the country are scheduled for closure on Wednesday. Shelters will be opened as needed from Tuesday evening. Schools will be closed on November 1, 2022, as the country prepares for the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Lisa.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the Met Service. Countrywide, all NEMO district emergency operations centers are activated.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936 (NEMO Offices countrywide contact information is attached, to be read to the public). Stay alert, be prepared. Stay tune for the National Met Service weather bulletins and the NEMO advisories.

Updated National Shelter List (October 2022)


Click images for larger versions

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Minister Perez, Mayor Nunez and San Pedro NEMO EOC briefing in regards to Troprical Storm Lisa.



A briefing from Minister Andre Perez Area Representative for Belize Rural South, San Pedro Mayor Wally Nunez and Ms. Vanessa Parham Belize Rural South NEMO coordinator regarding Tropical Storm Lisa.



At 12:00 am, Tropical Storm Lisa was centered near latitude 15.8N, longitude 79.9W or about 570 miles East of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and minimum central pressure of 1004 mb.

Current Navy Track:



Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center
500 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Deep convection associated with Lisa has continued to expand overnight, and there has also been some increase in banding noted in infrared satellite imagery. However, data from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft suggest that this has not yet resulted in an increase in intensity. The plane found flight-level and SFMR winds to support an initial intensity of 40 kt, and that is the basis for the advisory intensity. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the cyclone this morning.

Lisa appears poised to strengthen given the recent increase in organization and expected favorable environmental conditions. The storm will be traversing SSTs of around 29 degrees Celsius and remain within an area of low to moderate vertical wind shear. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening, and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours when it is near the Bay Islands of Honduras. The NHC wind speed forecast follows the ICON and HFIP corrected consensus aids, which is between the higher regional hurricane models and the lower statistical aids. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter.

The tropical storm is moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope. The updated track forecast is slightly north of the previous track at 12 and 24 hours, but is very similar to the earlier official forecast thereafter.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.



For further information on tropical conditions, check the daily Tropical Weather Outlook, click here.

...LISA POISED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY... AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM...

At 6am (local time) Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 16.1N, longitude 81.1W or about 480 miles East of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and minimum central pressure of 1004 mb.

A hurricane watch is currently in effect and will be updated later today.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.
NEMO hotline: 936

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At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was about 220 miles (355 km) South of Grand Cayman. Lisa is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will pass south of the Cayman Islands today, move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday, and approach Belize later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane by early Wednesday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

This TROPICAL STORM LISA has swelled up considerably over night, and now has a lot of high cloud around it. Despite the cloud build up, the maximum winds have only increased from about 40 mph to 45 mph over the last couple of days. But they still think it will make landfall any where between south of Corozal and PG area.

At 9 am (local time) Tropical Storm Lisa has strengthened was located near latitude 16.3N, longitude 81.8W or about 430 miles East of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph and minimum central pressure of 1001 mb.

A hurricane watch is currently in effect and will be updated later today.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.





...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR STRENGTHENING LISA...

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has provided critical data with Lisa this morning, showing that the storm has started to intensify. Flight-level winds have increased to 55 kt, with SFMR winds of 50-55 kt, and surface-reduced dropsonde data of about 50 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt as a blend of these data, above the latest satellite classifications.

Further intensification is likely with Lisa now having a small radius-of-maximum winds in light vertical wind shear, along with the deep warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean providing ample fuel. The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening and shows Lisa becoming a hurricane in less than a day when it is near the Bay Islands of Honduras, and Lisa should intensify as it approaches Belize. For now, rapid intensification is not forecast, but since the percentage chances of this occurrence from SHIPS are increasing, this possibility must be mentioned and the new forecast is higher than the bulk of the guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected and Lisa is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate shortly thereafter.

Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/12 kt. No significant changes were made to the track forecast. A strong low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Lisa should keep the tropical cyclone on a generally westward track during the next couple of days. This motion is expected to bring the core of the cyclone near the Bay Islands of Honduras by early Wednesday, and across the coast of Belize by late Wednesday. The dynamical models remain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Navy Track:

The amount of high cloud has reduced, but spread out over a larger area, in fact some of its advance cloud, has mixed up with what was coming down from the NW to make heavy cloud over much of north Belize now, and a little rain. They say its central high rotating wind has speeded up now to 60 mph from the earlier 40 mph. . . But still no clear landing location on Belize coast, still could be anywhere between Corozal and PG, but more likely closer to Belize City.





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Belize Hotel Association Severe Weather Advisory

Tropical Storm Lisa

Tuesday, November 1, 2022

Tropical Storm Lisa, presently located 16.3 N 81.8 W, is currently predicted to make landfall in Belize at hurricane strength late Wednesday evening. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Belize and if you have not already done so, we urge you to initiate your hotel/resort's emergency preparedness protocol. This includes fortifying your properties as best you can, releasing unnecessary staff from their duties and communicating with your guests, both in-country as well as those scheduled to arrive this week.

Here's the airline information that we've been advised of: American Airlines, Delta and United all maintained their flight schedules for today however the PGIA will be closed later today and our domestic carriers, Maya Island Air and Tropic Air have discontinued flights as they make preparations to move their fleets northward. This means there will be no international flights tomorrow, Wednesday, November 2, 2022. At this juncture, any in-house guest who did not depart today, Tuesday, November 1, will not be able to do so; at least not through the Philip Goldson International Airport. We are advised that our international airline partners are waiving change fees with certain conditions however it is advisable for each guest to contact their airline directly for the specifics.

Our Association's office will be closed at 12:00 Noon, today, November 1, 2022 and will reopen as soon as possible after the "All Clear" has been given. In the meantime, urgent communications can be conveyed to us via WhatsApp at +501.632.0398. We urge everyone to pay keen attention to releases from the National Meteorological Service and the National Emergency Management Organization. Prepare yourselves, your guests and your employees as best as possible and heed all warnings and calls for evacuation, if any.



Planned Water Interruption from 6:00pm on Wednesday, November 2, 2022, to 6:00AM on Thursday, November 3, 2022, to the following areas:
- Caye Caulker
- San Pedro
- Dangriga
- Placencia
- Punta Gorda

Hurricane Warning Issued for the entire coast of Belize...TS Lisa shifts slightly north.

At 3:00 pm, Tropical Storm Lisa was centered near latitude 16.7N, longitude 83.3W, or about 220 miles East of Roatan Honduras, and about 327 miles almost due East of Dangriga Town ,Belize. Lisa was moving to the West at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.
NEMO hotline: 936

...LISA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022

Satellite images indicate that Lisa continues to become better organized with a central dense overcast feature forming along with more curved banding features. Dvorak estimates have increased as well, and the current wind speed is set to 55 kt, closest to the TAFB fix and near an average of the available values. Two Hurricane Hunter aircraft, an Air Force C-130 and a NOAA P-3, should be investigating Lisa this evening to get more in situ data.

Conditions look ripe for continued intensification. Other than some lingering dry air, Lisa is moving over very warm waters, in low shear, and has a small radius-of-maximum winds and an expanding outflow pattern. These factors suggest a pretty notable chance of rapid intensification, and the SHIPS index shows basically a coin flip chance of a 25-kt wind speed increase within 24 hours. Additionally, the regional hurricane models HWRF and HMON show Lisa becoming a category 2 hurricane before landfall. The new NHC forecast is similar to those models (note that further intensification is possible between the 24h forecast and Belize landfall) and a bit higher than the corrected-consensus guidance.

Lisa continues moving just north of due west or 280/13 kt. This westward track with some reduction in forward speed is anticipated due to the storm staying south of a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. While the synoptic pattern is about the same as before, a vertically deeper Lisa is more likely to feel upper-level southeasterly flow and will probably not lose any latitude near landfall. Thus, the latest forecast has been adjusted about 15-20 n mi north of the previous one with the model guidance nudging in that direction.

With the northward adjustment and a stronger cyclone in the forecast, more of the models are showing Lisa making it across Central America and Mexico as a weak tropical cyclone into the extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Although the new NHC forecast now indicates this likelihood, Lisa isn't expected to be a significant event there due to stronger shear, and re-intensification is not indicated in the official forecast.

Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and for the southern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting Wednesday afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras early Wednesday and along the coast of Belize by Wednesday afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Yucatan in the Hurricane Watch area Wednesday afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala beginning tonight into Wednesday, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning Wednesday afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala and the southeast portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas starting tonight through Thursday.

=================

Crown Weather:

Lisa Is Strengthening & Will Probably Be A Hurricane When It Makes Landfall In Belize On Wednesday Night

Reports from reconnaissance aircraft and satellite imagery indicates that Lisa is strengthening. Additional strengthening looks likely over the next 24 hours or so as Lisa heads westward. Based on the latest guidance, it seems fairly possible that Lisa will be a hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Belize on Wednesday night.

As I already mentioned, it looks very likely that Lisa will head between a west and west-northwest track leading to the storm to come ashore along the coast of Belize on Wednesday night.

Tropical storm to hurricane conditions are expected along the northern coast of Honduras tonight and Wednesday and then across Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday night and into Thursday.

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Little bump north. Stronger system still possible with the HWRF showing CAT 2.
Latest NHC track update on soon to be Hurricane Lisa.

NEMO ADVISORY NO. 3 TROPICAL STORM LISA

8:00 PM, TUESDAY, 1st NOVEMBER 2022

The National Meteorological Service of Belize (NMS) and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the general public that at 7:00 p.m. (local time) Tropical Storm Lisa was located near latitude 16.7N, longitude 84.0W or about 285 miles east of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and minimum central pressure of 996 mb. Lisa will continue on a general westward track with some decrease in forward speed during the next few days. On this forecast track, the centre will move near or over the Bay Islands of Honduras early on Wednesday and approach Belize later on Wednesday. Strengthening is expected and Lisa is expected to be a strong category 1 or minimal category 2 hurricane by landfall on Belize late on Wednesday evening. A hurricane warning is out for the entire coast of Belize.

This system will bring heavy rainfall with amounts of 4-6 inches and locally higher values of up to 8-12 inches starting on Wednesday and continuing through Thursday, which will result in flooding across low-lying and flood prone areas of the country and flash flooding especially over the south. Winds of upper category 1 hurricane strength of 90-95 mph or category 2 strength of 96 -110 mph are expected near the landfall location with a storm surge of 4-7 feet to the north of where the centre makes landfall. Strong gusty winds will result in very rough sea conditions with large battering waves.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.

• In accordance with the Disaster Preparedness and Response Act to safeguard persons, employers are strongly urged to release non-essential staff so that they may make preparations to secure themselves, their families and property prior to the arrival of the storm. Employers must allow their staff adequate time to make final preparations.

A hurricane warning (Red II) has been declared for the entire coast of Belize. A flash flood warning is in effect for the Moho and Temash rivers.

• Shelters are available countrywide including Belize City. (Attached is the list of the first set of shelters). Public Officers are to standby to report for your emergency management duties. Kudos those already working hard.

• The public is advised that water taxis have ceased operations today and airports closed at 8:00 p.m. tonight. Public bus transportation will cease operations on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m.Seaports will also close on Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. Movement on the highways tomorrow is to be kept to a minimum, essential services need the space to preposition assets and supplies. NEMO continues to advise the public to put your family/emergency plan into action, check your emergency food and medical supplies, store water, and check on the elderly and persons with disabilities.

Secure your homes and your important documents. Secure loose objects and flammable material. Municipalities and the public are advised to clear drains to reduce flooding.

Make early preparations to leave high risks areas; voluntarily relocate to a safe location before the system makes landfall if you live in a low-lying area or a vulnerable coastal community. Know which shelter you will go to. It is impressive to see people moving to safety out of harm's way today, boarding up their homes and doing their emergency shopping. Way to go Belize! Be prepared, mek wi save wi life. Thanks to media for the awesome public service coverage. Help us curb misinformation, it can affect people's lives.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS. Stay tuned for the National Met Service weather bulletins and the NEMO advisories.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936 (NEMO Offices countrywide contact information is attached, to be read to the public). Stay alert, be prepared. Get ready tomorrow to weather the storm in a safe place. Don't panic, just be prepared as displayed today by many in the news, you are true NEMO emergency examples!

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Kindly note information from the National Transport & Evacuation Committee.

WEDNESDAY 7am
ONLY the following shelters will be open as of 7am in San Pedro and Caye Caulker:
Sagebrush church (located south of the bridge)
Youth Center (located behind RC church in San Marcos.
Caye Caulker - RC School
If you are going to a shelter you must bring food and water with you. Bring all important documents (passports, birth papers). ONLY bring the items with you that you will use in the shelter.
NO Pets are permitted in the shelters.
NO alcohol, weapons or cigarettes are permitted inside the shelter.
Respect others and follow ALL instructions given by authorized shelter wardens.
Please follow our page for additional shelter openings.

Navy Track:



Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

...LISA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF BELIZE... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...

A few hours ago, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt in the northeastern eyewall and estimated 55-60 kt surface winds from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. The minimum central pressure was near 992 mb. Since then, satellite imagery and radar data from Belize show little change in organization, and based on these observations the initial intensity remains 60 kt.

Lisa has 12-18 h before it makes landfall in Belize, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time. The forecast peak intensity of 75 kt is on the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After landfall, the cyclone should weaken as it crosses Belize and northern Guatemala into southeastern Mexico. The center should emerge over the Bay of Campeche before the 60 h point. However, strong upper-level winds should cause enough shear to keep the cyclone from re-intensifying, and Lisa is still forecast to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by 120 h.

The initial motion remains 280/13 kt. A ridge to the north will continue to steer Lisa westward at a slightly reduced forward speed through landfall. The storm is the expected to follow the flow around a low- to mid-level ridge into the Bay of Campeche in 48-60 h. After that time, the increasingly shallow cyclone should turn southward in the low-level flow. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than the previous track as the guidance is in good agreement on a faster motion through 72 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras this morning and along the coast of Belize and southeastern Yucatan by this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, the Bay Islands of Honduras, northern Guatemala, the southeastern portion of the Mexican state of Chiapas, and the Mexican state of Tabasco.

...LISA BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE HEADED FOR BELIZE...

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lisa was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 86.7 West. Lisa is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will move just north of the Bay Islands of Honduras this morning, make landfall in Belize later today, and then cross northern Guatemala and move into southeastern Mexico by Thursday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast as Lisa approaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center makes landfall.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

More maps as Lisa approaches...

Advisory 4 Hurricane Lisa
No one is permitted on the streets after 10am. All persons should be home preparing for the Hurricane.

====================

ADVISORY NO. 4 HURRICANE LISA

7:30 AM, WEDNESDAY, 2" NOVEMBER 2022

The National Meteorological Service of Belize (NMS) and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the public that at 6:00 a.m. (local time) Hurricane Lisa was located near latitude 17.2N, longitude 86.7W or about 100 miles east-southeast of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and minimum central pressure of 988 mb.

Lisa will continue on a general westward track today and make landfall on Belize later this afternoon. Strengthening is expected and Lisa is expected to be a strong category 1 or minimal category 2 hurricane by landfall on Belize. Landfall is expected near Belize City but residents across the country are reminded to be prepared as a hurricane warning is out for the entire coast of Belize.

Heavy rainfall from this system has already started to affect the country and that will continue today through to Thursday with amounts of 4-6 inches and locally higher values of up to 8-12 inches. This will result in flooding across low-lying and flood prone areas of the country and flash flooding especially over the south. Winds of upper category 1 hurricane strength of 85-95 mph or category 2 strength of 96 -105 mph are expected near the landfall location with a storm surge of 4-7 feet to the north of where the center makes landfall. Strong gusty winds will result in very rough sea conditions with large battering waves.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information corning from NEMO and the NMS.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.

• In accordance with the Disaster Preparedness and Response Act to safeguard persons, employers are strongly urged to release non-essential staffs° that they may make preparations to secure themselves, their families and property prior to the arrival of the storm. Employers must allow their staff adequate time to make final preparations.

A hurricane warning (Red II) has been declared for the entire coast of Belize. A flash flood warning is in effect for the Moho and Temash rivers.

• Shelters are available countrywide including Belize City. (Attached is the list of the first set of shelters). Public Officers are to standby to report for your emergency management duties. Kudos those already working hard. • The public is advised that borders will close at 2:00 p.m. today. Water taxis have ceased operations and airports closed last night. Seaports closed this morning. Public bus transportation will cease operations today at 10:00 a.m. Movement on the highways today is to be kept to a minimum, essential services need the space to preposition assets and supplies.

NEMO continues to advise the public to put your family/emergency plan into action, check your emergency food and medical supplies, store water, and check on the elderly and persons with disabilities.

Secure your homes and your important documents. Secure loose objects and flammable material. Municipalities and the public are advised to clear drains to reduce flooding.

Make early preparations to leave high risks areas; voluntarily relocate to a safe location before the system makes landfall if you live in a low-lying area or a vulnerable coastal community. Know which shelter you will go to.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS. Stay tuned for the National Met Service weather bulletins and the NEMO advisories.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936 (NEMO Offices countrywide contact information is attached, to be read to the public). Stay alert, be prepared. Get ready tomorrow to weather the storm in a safe place. Don't panic, just be prepared!

We had a fair bit of rain overnight, in several relatively short periods of heavy rain, I measured a 62mm ( 2½" ) of rain by 7am
They have now classified it as HURRICANE LISA which is on our door step now. Its leading band caused a lot of overnight rain and its main rain part looks as if bringing more periods of heavy rain into central Belize coast line within a couple of hours.

I expect more rain between Dangriga up to Orange Walk later this morning. So looks as if its centre will be starting to cross the coast line about or just before mid-day, and be fully on land by about 2pm and reaching Belmopan and Cayo by late afternoon.

The surprising thing is that even by 8am this morning, there is no wind near Belmopan, with a Hurricane so close, you would normally be getting winds this far away from it. This storm is going to cause problems for Belize City.

Rain already well into Belize now : The storm looks as if it is now going up closer to Belize City. The leading rain has moved in rather faster that expected earlier, it is patchy rain though. Still no wind in Belmopan, but the low level clouds are now from the NW, that is being sucked into the south side of the storm.

We can now see the circulating clouds over Belize. Patchy rain moving well inland now.

Minister Andre Perez Area Representative for Belize Rural South and San Pedro Mayor Wally Nunez visiting various areas on the island before Hurricane Lisa. Stay Safe!

...LISA VERY NEAR BELIZE BARRIER REEF... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BELIZE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

Hurricane Lisa Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 AM CDT Wed Nov 02 2022

Lisa has become better organized on satellite images this morning, with strong convection near the center. Flight-level, SFMR-observed surface wind and Doppler velocity observations from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds are near 70 kt. This is a small hurricane, with the inner-core hurricane-force wind area only about 20 n mi across.

The hurricane is likely to make landfall within 12 hours, so it has a small window for additional intensification before the center crosses the coastline. The official forecast shows a 75-kt intensity for the inland point at 12 hours, but it is expected that Lisa will be stronger than that intensity at landfall. The cyclone will rapidly weaken after moving inland and passing over Guatemala and eastern Mexico. Although the center is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche in about 48 hours, strong southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough near Texas is expect to cause the system to weaken to a remnant low pressure area by day 5, or sooner.

Lisa continues moving westward or around 275/12 kt. Over the next few days, the tropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest and north around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. In 3-5 days, the weak and shallow cyclone is expected to meander slowly over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico within the near-surface flow. The official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus guidance and is similar to the previous NHC track.

Key Messages:

1. There is potential for a life-threatening storm surge near where the center of Lisa crosses the coast of Belize and extreme southeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula starting this afternoon.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Belize and the southeastern Yucatan peninsula by this afternoon.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the north coast of Honduras and Guatemala in the next several hours, and over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this afternoon.

4. Localized flash flooding is expected across portions of Belize, northern Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lisa was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.7 West. Lisa is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest and some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will make landfall in Belize later this afternoon, and then cross northern Guatemala and move into southeastern Mexico by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is still possible before landfall. Rapid weakening will occur after the center of Lisa moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).

ADVISORY NO. 5 HURRICANE LISA

12:30 PM, WEDNESDAY, 2nd NOVEMBER 2022

The National Meteorological Service of Belize (NMS) and the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) hereby inform the public that at 12 midday (local time) Hurricane Lisa was located near latitude 17.3N, longitude 87.7W or about 35 miles East-Southeast of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and minimum central pressure of 987 mb.

Lisa will continue on a general westward track today and make landfall on Belize in a few hours. Lisa is expected to maintain its current intensity or strengthen just a bit more before it makes landfall on the coast of Belize between Dangriga and Belize City (near the Northern Lagoon) later this afternoon. Residents across the country are reminded to be prepared as a hurricane warning is out for the entire coast of Belize.

Heavy rainfall from this system has already started to affect the country and that will continue for the remainder of today through to Thursday with amounts of 4-6 inches and locally higher values of up to 8-12 inches. This will result in flooding across low-lying and flood-prone areas of the country and flash flooding especially over the south. Winds of upper category 1 hurricane strength of 80-90 mph with a storm surge of 4-7 feet to the north of where the center makes landfall. Strong gusty winds will result in very rough sea conditions with large battering waves.

A state of emergency will be declared for the Belize and Stann Creek districts from 3:00 p.m. today until the "All Clear" is given. A curfew will go into effect from dusk today until dawn on Thursday, 3rd November, 2022. Only emergency and security agencies are allowed to be on the roads and streets during this period.

Residents are advised to continue monitoring this system very closely and to follow official information coming from NEMO and the NMS.

In accordance with the Disaster Preparedness and Response Act to safeguard persons, employers are strongly urged to release non-essential staff so that they may make preparations to secure themselves, their families and property prior to the arrival of the storm. Employers must allow their staff adequate time to make final preparations.

A hurricane warning (Red II) has been declared for the entire coast of Belize. A flash flood warning is in effect for the Moho and Temash rivers.

• Shelters are available countrywide including Belize City. (Attached is the list of the first set of shelters). Public Officers are to standby to report for your emergency management duties. Kudos those already working hard.

• The public is advised that borders will close at 2:00 p.m. today. Airports, water taxis and public bus transportation have ceased operations. Movement on the highways today is to be kept to a minimum, essential services need the space to preposition assets and supplies.

NEMO's emergency hotline is 936 (NEMO Offices countrywide contact information is attached, to be read to the public). Stay alert, be prepared. Get ready tomorrow to weather the storm in a safe place. Don't panic, just be prepared!

==================

The storm centre continues to move in, it appears to have slowed down, so not yet close to land. But there are many bands of rain right now, mainly central and north Belize.

It now looks as it it might make landfall very close to Belize City, still probably over a hour away. Presently, the heaviest rain areas are to the north of the storm centre.

There is no surface wind near Belmopan, but the low level clouds are coming down from the North, which indicates that the storm centre is to the east of us. It looks as if it has slowed down and changing course now more northerly. More directly towards Belize City. Still looks like an hour from getting to Belize City. Several bands of Rain going into Belize City. I noticed my electrical power blip a couple of times. Even the hurricane people think it is changing course.

Crown Weather

Lisa is about to make landfall on the coast of Belize according to radar imagery. This small hurricane has about 80-85 mph winds and is expected to bring tropical storm to hurricane conditions to Belize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon through tonight as it pushes inland. In fact, the eye and eyewall of Lisa will very likely move right over Belize City late this afternoon and this evening bringing hurricane conditions to the city.

Weakening is expected as Lisa moves into Guatemala and southern Mexico on Thursday before it temporarily moves into the Bay of Campeche from Friday into this weekend. Strong wind shear from a very robust upper level trough of low pressure over the southern Plains will lead to Lisa to not strengthen at all in the Bay of Campeche and eventually it'll sink into southern Mexico where it'll dissipate by about Monday.

======================

State of Emergency to be Declared for Belize and Stann Creek Districts

A state of emergency will be declared from 3:00 p.m. today until the "All Clear" for Belize and Stann Creek districts. A curfew will go into effect from dusk on Wednesday, 2nd November to dawn on Thursday, 3rd November 2022. Only emergency and security agencies are allowed to be on the roads and streets during this period.

We are getting quite a few power dips. . . .
I don't know why, but my guess due to the hurricane winds on some Belize power cables, probably near Belize City.

I see the dry, perhaps clear sky storm centre is now very close to Belize City, with a lot of rain outside the centre.

I show the storm centre movement direction in a red arrow and the Rain movement direction with a blue arrow.

There is still very little surface wind near Belmopan, but I have shown the low level clouds moving from the NNW over Belmopan.

The clouds and wind movement on the 2nd picture in white arrows is just a guess as to what I expect is happening.

Mouth of the river park, Ambergis Caye



Live coverage on LOVE FM NEWS



Video of Belize City



Phone numbers for District Emergency Operations Centers



East side of Caye Caulker





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Hurricane Lisa just making landfall over Belize City.

The eye area of little or no rain is now moving over and away from Belize City now. . . There will be more rain and wind behind the eye, but less.

But wind has been increasing significantly in Belmopan, now up to Beaufort number 7, over 30 mph, over 50 km/h
High winds Whole trees in motion. Effort needed to walk against the wind.
There has been steady, but light rain in Belmopan, could be more heavy rain to come.

The whole north of Belize is and will continue to get a lot of rain, further north, less wind.

This storm slowed down as it approached Belize, allowing it to change cause, but now travelling across Belize later than expected, and will still be crossing belize as it gets dark in the next hour, so be careful.

Current situation in San Pedro





The effects of Hurricane Lisa have reached Ambergris Caye. The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) forecasts Hurricane Lisa will make landfall between Belize City and Dangriga as a strong category 1 or minimal category 2 storm before nightfall, with winds between 80-90 mph and a storm surge between 4-7 feet. NEMO advises the public to put emergency action plans into effect, check emergency food and medical supplies, store water, and check on those who may rely on them for assistance during the storm.

A state of emergency will be declared for the Belize and Stann Creek districts starting at 3:00 p.m. today until the "all clear" is given. A curfew will be in effect from dusk today until dawn on Thursday, November 3, during which only emergency and security agencies will be allowed to circulate.

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It is making its way across Belize over night, very slowly. Don't go out to check on anything. . . Wait until morning for checking.

At 12:00 am local time, Tropical Storm Lisa was near latitude 17.6N, longitude 89.6W, or about 85 miles west of Belize City. Lisa was moving to the west at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the country of Belize.
*1st Imagery - Radar Imagery showing rainfall activity at 11:31 pm, November 2nd 2022.

There was a tornado in Spanish Lookout.

Thursday, November 3rd 2022:
Only outer rain bands remain over Belize from Lisa as Lisa continues to move westward away from Belize.

At 6:00 am local time, Tropical Storm Lisa was near latitude 17.9N, longitude 90.6W, or about 90 miles east-southeast of Ciudad Del Carmen, Mexico. Lisa was moving to the west at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A FLOOD WARNING is in effect for the country of Belize.
Please keep tuned in to local media for updates from NMS and NEMO. The All Clear has not yet been declared for Belize. Please refrain from traversing the roads until the All Clear has been declared by NEMO.

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A recap of last night on Caye Caulker by Joanne Huang



Up by me and neighbor X'tan Ha "The Waterfront" Resort - just a messy beach…water pushed up but only a few extra feet vs last months very high tides. Very thankful and thinking of Belize City who got the worst of Lisa. Photos by San Pedro Scoop


Click photos for more pictures!

The Caye Caulker community coming together after the storm.
Cleaning up has begun on this sunny day.
Photos by Stacey Marino


Click photos for more pictures!

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Good Morning from San Pedro, Ambergris Caye. Little to no damage to report by Hurricane Lisa as the island was spared from a direct impact.

Don't Cancel Your Travel Plans!

A beautiful sunrise shows only minor debris along the shoreline. Island residents are cleaning up and opening shop to get back to normal.

(4:20 PM CDT Wednesday Update: Hurricane #Lisa makes landfall in Belize about 10 miles southwest of Belize City. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 85 mph (140 km/h), and the minimum central pressure is estimated to be 990 mb (29.24 inches).)

Significant damage has been reported from Belize City. Photos below by the Ambergris Today


Click photos for more pictures!

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Hopkins Village this morning. Photo by Hopkins Uncut



The San Pedro Town Council is out cleaning up in the various areas…


Click photos for more pictures!

BEL POWER UPDATE 10AM, NOV 3:

Power supply restored to entire Caye Caulker, San Pedro, Ambergris Caye and the districts of Stann Creek, Toledo, Orange Walk and Corozal. Power has also been restored to some areas in the Cayo and Belize District.

Our team

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BWS notifies customers that due to the effects of Hurricane Lisa, there will be water interruptions across the country of Belize. Please see our contact information to report any broken pipes. We will dispatch our crews to restore water as soon as possible.

BWS reminds customers to stay safe.

NEMO Belize Rural South: ALL CLEAR!

The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) advises that the "ALL CLEAR" has been issued for the entire country as is signaled by one green flag. This means that the hurricane is no longer a threat to Belize.

Residents in affected areas are strongly advised to remain in their homes as there is significant damage, including dangerous debris, leaning lampposts and downed electrical lines which pose hazard to life. Furthermore, in the interest of restoring utilities quickly and efficiently, it is important that utility crews are able to work unimpeded by unnecessary traffic.

The public is advised to continue to follow the official advisories and updates from NEMO. NEMO's emergency hotline remains operational at 936.

Prime Minister of Belize Hon. John Briceno has announced that there will be a 7pm to 6am curfew in the Belize District except for Caye Caulker and Ambergris Caye as of Thursday, November 3 to Sunday, November 6, 2022, to ensure safety of life and property.

Aftermath of Hurricane Lisa in San Pedro