June 1, marks the official start of the 2023 hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico). The season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year.

This year's forecast is that tropical cyclone activity will be near normal in the Atlantic Basin. The prediction is for 12 to 17 named storms. Five to nine are expected to become hurricanes, and one to four are expected to become major hurricanes (category three or stronger). An average season in the Atlantic Basin consists of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The two main factors that are likely to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season are:

(1) A moderate to high chance that an El Niño will develop during this year's hurricane season. This factor will likely contribute to the suppression of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin.

(2) Warmer than average sea surface temperatures are expected in the Eastern and Central Atlantic Basin, which tends to favour hurricane development and could counter the effects of El Niño.

What Does this mean for Belize?

Note that seasonal predictions give us an indication of how active a particular hurricane season is expected to be, but they do not tell us when a particular hurricane will develop or where it will track once developed. One or more of the 12 to 17 named storms forecast to develop this season could hit the country or none. Therefore, as a nation located in an area vulnerable to the hazards posed by tropical cyclones, we should be prepared each year regardless of the forecast.

The team of experts at the National Meteorological Service (NMS) of Belize in the Ministry of Sustainable Development, Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management will use all assets at its disposal to monitor and track developing systems and alert the National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) and the public in a timely manner should any system pose a threat to Belize.

The NMS and NEMO advise members of the public to review their family emergency plans and be prepared for any eventuality during the 2023 hurricane season. The public is also reminded that it is an offence to share false information. Only official information from the NMS and NEMO should be followed.