...some of the latest info... storm looks better organized than when the above piece was written. Not a lot of confidence/consensus in either intensity or path... other than it will get stronger, keep heading west and probably(?) curve north... one to keep an eye on.

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NHC discussion as of 5:00 AM EST

The low-shear environment and improved structure of the cyclone suggest at least steady intensification over the next couple of days. However...the disagreement in the intensity guidance continues. The SHIPS and lgem still show a faster pace of intensification...while the dynamical models show strengthening at a much slower rate. Given the current trends...the official forecast has been adjusted upward and shows Ernesto becoming a hurricane in 36 hours...but remains below the statistical-dynamical guidance. Later in the period...the GFDL shows more intensification than earlier runs...but the HWRF and much of the hfip guidance remain weaker. At days 3 through 5 the new NHC forecast has been adjusted upward slightly...and is close to the iv15 consensus and the Florida state superensemble. Needless to say...there is low confidence in the intensity forecast through the period.

The initial motion estimate is 275/16 as Ernesto is situated south
of the subtropical ridge. The track model guidance is in good
agreement through 48 hours in showing a continued westward motion
as the ridge builds westward to north of the cyclone. Through this
time the NHC forecast is simply an update of the previous one. At
days 3 through 5 there continues to be large spread in the model
guidance. The biggest change this cycle is a southward shift in the
UKMET...which now joins the GFS and ECMWF in showing that Ernesto
will remain too far south to move into a weakness in the
subtropical ridge that develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in
4 to 5 days. However...the GFDL...HWRF...and several of the hfip
models continue to show Ernesto gaining more latitude in the second
half of the forecast period. The NHC forecast has been adjusted a
little to the south toward the new multi-model consensus at days 3
through 5...but still lies to the right of the center of the
guidance envelope.