The latest run of Hurrevac (below) indicates a more southerly tract of TS Ernesto, which will bring the TC over northern Belize early on Wednesday. The heavy downpours will start from early Tuesday. The storm will likely slow down and strenthen as it enters the NW Caribbean. Conditions will be favorable for flash floods.
Follow the link below for High Res satellite images of Ernesto (375 m) for this morning. The convection is intense E and NE of the center.
http://go.wisc.edu/qzooq5Ramon Frutos