WEEKLY WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR BELIZE
Valid: Monday, March 5-12, 2012

Here is the Weekly Outlook and an update of TS Ernesto ploughing westwards at 20 mph with max sustained winds of 50 mph at 3:00 pm this afternoon.

Expect torrential rainfall and TS force winds with this system on Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

RFrutos

The feature of interest this week will be the approach and landfall of tropical cyclone Ernesto along the northern coast of Belize on Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning as a minimal hurricane. The GFS model cyclonic vorticity projection has the center of Ernesto moving across the central coast of Belize early on Wednesday. Although Ernesto is entraining dry air as it moves into the western Caribbean this evening, environmental conditions will still be favorable for the system to strengthen to hurricane intensity before making landfall over the northern or central coast of Belize. A strong windshear zone is evident in the extreme NW Caribbean and SE Gulf of Mexico, while a persistent high pressure ridge to the north of the western Caribbean will keep Ernesto on a westerly to west-northwesterly track, propelling the system towards the southern Yucatan-Belize coast. Regardless of where, along the coast of Belize, Ernesto makes landfall, tropical storm force winds will affect most areas of Belize, with hurricane force winds in a narrow zone near the center. Torrential rainfall will spread across the country by Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, with highest concentration projected over the north and central areas of the country. The instability will persist through Thursday until Saturday. So expect much rainfall this week, with a high potential of strong winds near where Ernesto makes landfall, and flooding in flood prone areas, including the Belize city area and surroundings!

Daily rainfall accumulations will range from 0.10-0.25 of-an-inch on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall rates will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday continuing through Thursday. Expect the highest rainfall amounts on Tuesday night through Thursday morning, with rates of 2-3 inches per day. Locally higher daily rates of 4-5 inches are expected in the elevated areas of the Cayo, Stann Creek and Toledo Districts. The northern sector of the mainland including the Belize District will also see high rainfall accumulations on Tuesday through Thursday, with totals of 2-3 inches per day. The rapid runoff will provoke localized flash floods in valley and hilly areas. Residence in flood prone zones should be prepared to move to safer areas!

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