Is Ambergris Caye safe? What a rhetorical question. The answers are: absolutely Yes and absolutely NO.
If you choose to compare AC with the crime ridden neighborhoods of larger cities in the US, and other countries of the World, then your answer is Yes.
If you choose to compare AC with many towns and cities that have aggressively addressed their crime issues and taken the effective measures to control it, then your answer is NO.
More importantly, and how I think AC should assess the question is: How safe is AC now as compared to how it used to be and how safe is it reasonable for the residents and tourists to expect it to be?
I am not one to accept the concept that just because other places in the world are changing for the worse, it is inevitable that AC must change for the worse. I prefer the approach that if something were better at one time, there is no reason why they cannot be that way again. Especially when you are dealing with a somewhat controlled area as an island.
I can remember when San Pedro had one police man (Smitty) and his biggest challenge for the day was what to do to keep from getting bored. And if you lost your wallet or purse, whoever found it would find you the next day and return it intact with $4, $4000 or whatever was in it.
Now, probably it is unrealistic to think that we can return to that type of environment. But, I do not think that is unreasonable to expect that AC be free from murder, armed robberies and burglaries, which it is currently not. I feel a tourist should be able to walk anywhere on the island at any time without fear of being attacked. That is not the case at present. I do not think it is even unreasonable to expect to leave your golf cart unattended without having to worry about it being stolen. That is not the case, just ask the rental companies how many get taken on any given weekend.
What concerns me most, and this post is an example if you see some of the responses to the question, is that they are many on AC that are unwilling to accurately identify the level of crime that exists on AC. They are either in denial or possibly feel that by openly addressing the problem it will have a negative effect on tourism. Not being involved in tourism and approaching the question from the perspective of one who lives on AC for half the year, I would prefer it be accurately assessed and measures put in place to make AC a place closer to what it used to be. I also feel this is in the best interest of tourism in the long run.
I don't think the statistics are available, but if they were I am afraid a completely accurate assessment of the crime on AC and in San Pedro would show an alarming rate of increase. If you want to talk comparisons, I would not be surprised to see that San Pedro would have one of the highest rates of increase of most anywhere. Granted, this is because San Pedro had such a low or non-existent crime rate at one time. You hardly ever heard of a theft let alone murder or armed robbery. Not the case today. Those are undeniable facts.
That gets me back to my point. I hope all those who care about AC will not take the approach that just because AC is better than most places, we are willing to accept that we should not carry money with us or wear our watches or walk the beaches at night. That is not how AC used to be and that is not how AC has to be.